US EIA projects 2024 coal exports down 9% on year at 91 mil st

The US Energy Information Administration Jan. 9 revised downward its 2024 coal export projection to 91 million st, which if realized would be 9% lower than 2023 exports of 100 million st.

The EIA's January Short-Term Energy Outlook marked a 2.7% downward revision on the month for 2024 projected coal exports. Coal exports in 2025 are projected to recover 4.8% on the year to 95.4 million st.

Lower coal demand was reflected in the EIA's 2024 US coal production estimate representing an all-time low. The EIA projected that coal production will fall 15.9% on the year to 489.3 million st in 2024 before declining another 12.4% year on year to 428.8 million st in 2025.

Total coal consumption was projected at 391.3 million st in 2024, up 1.6% from the prior month's projection. The EIA estimated 2025 total coal consumption at 361.7 million st. For the electric power sector, coal consumption was estimated at 351.9 million st in 2024, down 8.4% from the prior year. For 2025, electric power sector coal consumption was projected at 322.2 million st, which would be an all-time low if realized, according to EIA data going back to 1997.

Nominal average delivered coal prices were estimated at $2.49/MMbtu in 2024, down from $2.52/MMBtu in 2023. The EIA projected that 2025 nominal average delivered coal prices would shrink further to $2.44/MMBtu.

Platts assessed US over-the-counter Central Appalachia 12,500 Btu/lb CSX rail coal for February delivery unchanged on the session at $72.40/st Jan. 8, showed data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The assessment was based on broker indications of value at $72/st and $72.75/st, tested in the market through 4:30 pm ET. The Jan. 8 CAPP assessment at $72.40/st was equivalent to $2.896/MMBtu. The CAPP coal price averaged $81.12/st in 2023, the equivalent of $3.245/MMBtu.

Powder River Basin 8,800 Btu/lb rail coal for prompt-month delivery closed at $13.95/st Jan. 8, unchanged on the session, based on broker indications of value at $13.85/st and $14/st. The assessment at $13.95/st was equivalent to $0.793/MMbtu. The coal averaged $14.46/MMbtu in 2023, the equivalent of $0.822/MMBtu.

In line with falling coal consumption, coal's share of US power generation is expected to slip to 14.8% in 2024, down from 16.6% in 2023. The EIA projected coal generation at 13.3% in 2025 as renewables generation increases.

Renewable energy sources totaled 21.8% of 2023 US generation share. Generation from renewables was projected to rise to 24% in 2024 and 25.9% in 2025. Nuclear generation's share was estimated to remain steady between 19.2% and 19.3% between 2024 and 2025. Natural gas generation, which constituted 41.9% of the US generation share in 2023, was projected to fall to 41.5% in 2024 and 41.1% in 2025.

The EIA estimated that the Henry Hub spot price will average $2.76/MMbtu in 2024, down from the December 2024 estimate of $2.90/MMBtu. For 2024, the EIA projected Henry Hub prices at $3.06/MMBtu. The prompt-month NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures contract settled at $2.98/MMBtu Jan. 8, according to CME Group data. In 2023, the Henry Hub price averaged $2.665/MMBtu.

Dry natural gas production was estimated at 105.04 Bcf/day in 2024, up from 103.54 Bcf/d in 2023. The EIA estimated that dry natural gas production would increase to 106.38 Bcf/d in 2025. LNG exports are expected to rise 4.4% on the year to 12.36 Bcf/d in 2024 before jumping 16.7% year on year to 14.42 Bcf/d in 2025.

Total natural gas consumption for 2024 was projected at 89.91 Bcf/d, up 1.1% on the year. Total consumption of natural gas was projected to fall 0.2% on the year to 89.71 Bcf/d in 2025.

Natural gas consumption in the US power sector was projected to rise 1.1% on the year to 35.54 Bcf/d in 2024. The EIA estimated that 2025 natural gas consumption in the US power sector will decline 0.7% on the year to 35.29 Bcf/d.