AGRICULTURE WEATHER WATCH: Dry weather boosts soybean, corn crop harvest activities across US

Dry weather covered large sections of the Plains and upper Midwest in the US, allowing autumn fieldwork including harvest activities and winter wheat planting to near completion in many areas.

US corn and soybeans were 81% and 91% harvested, respectively, versus the 5-year average of 77% and 86% by Nov. 5, according to USDA weekly weather and crop bulletin Nov. 7.

Nationwide, producers had sown 90% of the intended 2024 winter wheat acreage by Nov. 5, one percentage point behind last year but 1 point ahead of the 5-year average.

US

** In the Mississippi River at Memphis, Tennessee, a gauge reading of minus 5.24 feet was recorded on Nov. 8, while at Vicksburg, it rose to 4.49 feet.

** Rains in October helped the Mississippi River levels rise from the earlier record-low dips in the same month, easing concerns for grains exports.

** In the corn belt, breezy weather will prevail in the wake of a departing low-pressure system. High temperatures are expected to exceed 70F in parts of the southern corn belt.

** Dry weather in the Plains and upper Midwest is expected to support autumn fieldwork, including the harvest of corn and soybeans, which is 81% and 91% complete, respectively—both above the 5-year average.

** In the Southeast, dry weather is favoring fieldwork, but hampering the emergence of newly planted winter grains and cover crops.

** Platts assessed CIF New Orleans corn at $213.6/mt, up $3.95/mt on the day, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data Nov. 8.

Brazil

** Water level in the Rio Negro River basin reached 13.22 m Nov. 7, an increase from the Oct. 27 lowest-on-record level of 12.70 m, according to the Port of Manaus.

** Rainfall with accumulations greater than 50 mm is expected in the Amazonas and parts of Acre, Rondônia, Roraima, and Pará over the coming week.

** In the Northeast, rains over the next week are expected to favor the sowing and development of soybeans and facilitate the recovery of soil moisture.

** In the central provinces, hot days with rains greater than 50 mm will help in the sowing and development of the first corn crops in the main producing regions.

** Dry weather and little rain are forecast for the southeast, whereas the southern region is expected to be dry and without rain, favoring the maturation and harvesting of winter crops.

** Platts assessed Brazil corn FOB Santos at $ 221.25/mt, up $2.96/mt on the day Nov. 8.

Argentina

** Hailstorms in the core region damaged emerging corn and wheat crops in several areas.

** In Maria Susana, 100% of wheat and corn crops were damaged, while in El Trébol, losses stood between 30% to 100%.

** Weather conditions are expected to improve from the west to east over the weekend, with rainfall accumulations forecast to be between 20 mm to 30 mm in the GEA.

** Temperatures are expected to go down at the start of next week, but will eventually rise over the weekend, with a maximum of 34C in the central and north Cordova and 33C elsewhere.

** Short-term forecasts show rainfall with good coverage and volume and will help in the recovery of soil profiles in the Pampas region.

** Platts assessed Argentina corn FOB Up River at $211.02/mt, up 98 cents on the day Nov. 8.

Australia

** Most parts of Australia, except some parts of New South Wales and Victoria, are likely to remain dry over the next two weeks, the country's Bureau of Meteorology said in a forecast Nov. 7.

** Coastal parts of New South Wales and Victoria may see around 25 mm showers during the next two weeks, the bureau added. Western Australia is expected to see a dry spell during the next two weeks.

** Western Australia and New South Wales are key wheat suppliers and drier conditions are expected to help pace up wheat harvest.

** Temperatures are likely to rise across Australia, including Western Australia, according to the bureau.

** Western Australia may see 2 degrees Celsius to 3 degrees Celsius above normal temperatures during the next two weeks. New South Wales may see temperatures around 1 degree Celsius below normal during the next two weeks.

** The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has forecast wheat harvest for the marketing year 2023-24 (October-September) at around 26.2 million mt, down 34% year on year, which is expected to weigh on exports.

** Platts assessed FOB Australian Premium White wheat at $282.5/mt unchanged on the day on Nov.8.

EU

** Most of Europe, especially France and Germany, is likely to see scattered showers during the next two weeks, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said Nov. 8.

** Europe is also expected to see near-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, the agency said.

** Scattered rainfall is likely to boost wheat sowing operations underway in key suppliers — France and Germany.

** The European Commission forecast in its August update that EU cereal production in the marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) would be 269.8 million mt, against 274.1 million mt seen in the previous estimate.

** Platts assessed EU wheat with 11% protein content CPT Rouen at $254/mt, up $5.25 on the day Nov. 8.