USDA further cuts US corn production, yield estimates for MY 2022-23

The US Department of Agriculture lowered its US corn production estimate for the marketing year 2022-23 (September-August) to 13.94 billion bushels, down 415 million bushels from its previous estimate in August, it said in the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report Sept. 12.

The decline in US corn production estimate comes with cuts to MY 2022-23 US corn harvested acreage estimate as well as a reduction to the yield estimate, said USDA. At 13.94 billion bushels, US corn production will be 8% lower on the year from last year's 15.15 billion bushels.

USDA now sees US corn harvested area for MY 2022-23 to be at 80.8 million acres, down 1 million acres from the previous estimate, while US corn yield estimate for MY 2022-23 is reduced to 172.5 bushels/acre down 2.9 bu/acre from the previous estimate of 175.4 bu/acre seen in August.

Delayed planting and recent dryness in parts of the US had raised anticipation of reduction in US corn yield estimate.

The USDA sees US corn ending stocks for MY 2022-23 falling by 169 million bushels to 1.2 billion bushels as supply is dropping faster than use, it said.

The USDA increased the average farm price received by US farmers in the MY 2022-23 to $6.75/bu from $6.65/bu seen earlier in August, according to the report.

The MY 2022-23 US corn export estimate was lowered by 100 million bushels to 2.275 billion bushels in September, USDA said.

Corn beginning stocks for MY 2022-23 are also lowered slightly to 1.525 billion bushels from 1.53 billion bushels seen in August, it said. "Projected beginning stocks for 2022-23 are 5 million bushels lower based on essentially offsetting export and corn used for ethanol changes for 2021-22," said USDA.

Estimate for US corn use in ethanol was lowered by 50 million bushels to 3.325 billion bushels in September from 3.375 billion bushels seen earlier, said USDA. Feed and residual use is also lowered by 100 million bushels to 5.225 billion bushels based "on a smaller crop and higher expected prices," USDA said.

On the global front, world corn ending stocks are seen at 304.53 million mt in MY 2022-23, down 2.15 million mt from August forecast and also lower than 312.14 million mt estimated for MY 2021-22.