08 Apr 2022 | 18:09 UTC

USDA raises global corn 2021-22 ending stocks forecast to 305.46 mil mt

Highlights

Brazil's 2021-22 corn output forecast at 116 mil mt, up from 114 mil mt

Brazil's 2021-22 corn export forecast at 44.50 mil mt, up from 43 mil mt

Ukraine's 2021-22 corn-export seen at 23 mil mt, down from 27.50 mil mt

The global corn ending stocks outlook for 2021-22 was raised to 305.46 million mt from 300.97 million mt projected in March, the US Department of Agriculture said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released April 8.

The 2021-22 forecast was higher than 292.15 million mt of global corn ending stocks pegged for 2020-21 by the USDA.

Foreign corn ending stocks were higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, Serbia, the EU, and Indonesia that were partly offset by a reduction for Canada, the USDA said.

The USDA also raised global corn production forecast to 1.21 billion mt in 2021-22, from 1.206 million mt forecast in March.

Corn production is expected higher with increases seen for Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the EU, the USDA said.

Brazil's corn production outlook is raised due to the increase in sown area, the USDA said.

Major changes in global corn supply and trade forecast

for 2021-22 (Unit in Million MT)

Production

Exports

Ending
Stocks

World

March

1,206.14

199.90

300.97

April

1,210.45

197.00

305.46

United States

March

383.94

63.50

36.57

April

383.94

63.50

36.57

Total Foreign

March

822.20

136.40

264.40

April

826.51

133.50

268.89

Major Exporters

March

240.43

117.20

13.61

April

242.43

114.20

15.89

Argentina

March

53.00

39.00

1.03

April

53.00

39.00

1.19

Brazil

March

114.00

43.00

5.23

April

116.00

44.50

5.15

Ukraine

March

41.90

27.50

4.35

April

41.90

23.00

6.55

Imports

China

March

272.55

26.00

210.24

April

272.55

23.00

210.24

Outlook for US corn used for ethanol lifted

The USDA did not make any major changes to the US corn demand and supply estimates for MY 2021-22 (September-August), barring an increase in estimates for corn used for ethanol production, offset by a reduction in feed use estimate.

"This month's MY 2021-22 US corn outlook is for offsetting changes to feed and residual use and corn used for ethanol production, with unchanged ending stocks," the USDA said.

"Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.62 billion bushels, based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter, while corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and CoProducts Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during March as indicated by Energy Information Administration data," it added.

The season-average farm price for US corn in MY 2021-22 is raised 15 cents/bushel to $5.80/bu based on observed prices to date, the USDA said.

All other estimates—acreage, yield, and production—were maintained at the month-ago levels, according to the USDA.

Editor:

Aastha Agnihotri