ASIA AGRICULTURE: Key market indicators for March 27-31

Chinese crushers will be actively looking for fresh price cues March 27-31 after a recent downtrend in soybean prices, while Ulsan buyers have started seeking Grade B cargoes for July from the new Brazilian sugarcane crop.

Wheat

** Asian buyers entered the market for feed wheat March 20-24, with a cargo traded into South Korea below $300/mt CFR for the first time since July 2021.

** Trade sources said sellers may ration the export pace of Australian wheat to preserve margins amid fierce competition from Black Sea wheat into Asia.

** Platts assessed Australian Premium White wheat down $10/mt week on week at $310/mt and Australian Standard White wheat down $5/mt over the same period at $290/mt, narrowing the spread between the two to $20/mt, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.

Corn

** South Korea's July delivery requirements have been completed, and feed buyers will start to turn their attention toward August and September arrivals this week, price checking between Brazilian new crop and Ukrainian old crop shipped from Romania.

** Feed buyers in the Philippines could start exploring their options to import corn under the Minimum Access Volume this week. A total 216,940 mt of corn can be imported from Southeast Asia that is subject to a 5% tariff instead of 15% tariff.

** Platts assessed CFR Northeast Asia corn down $13.75/mt week on week at $312.25/mt March 24, S&P Global data showed.

Soybean

** Chinese crushers remain hesitant to purchase until CFR basis prices stabilize over CBOT futures, but improvement in gross crush margins could entice more purchases March 27-31, traders said.

** Demand for soybean continues to be seen for April-August shipments to China.

** Total demand coverage for April shipment remains at 8.5 million mt, while total open demand for May could be higher at 9 million mt.

** Platts assessed CFR China first month soybeans down 6.5% week on week at $540.13/mt March 24, S&P Global data showed.

Sugar

** Thailand is seeing one of the smallest tail-end cane crushes in this 2022-23 season and S&P Global has cut its total cane crush and sugar production estimates to 95 million mt and 11.2 million mt, respectively, down 2 million mt from a 97 million mt cane crush estimated last week.

** India is also seeing lower production. S&P Global revised its 2022-23 sugar output estimate to 33.2 million mt after diversion of 3.8 million to ethanol, down 400,000 mt from the 33.6 million mt estimated last week.

** Platts assessed Thai HiPol spot April cargoes at 205 points (2.05 cents/lb) over the ICE London No.11 May futures contracts March 24, down 9 points week on week.

Ethanol

** The Asian ethanol complex is expected to soften March 27-31 amid weaker freight and a lack of spot demand.

** Industrial ethanol market sources saw a small volume of Brazilian Grade B traded into Ulsan last week and there are expectations that Ulsan buyers will continue to seek for more cargoes in coming weeks.

** Platts assessed CIF Philippines bioethanol down $2.66/cu m week on week at $745.67/cu m March 24 and CFR Ulsan Grade B down $15/cu m over the same period at $720/cu m, S&P Global data showed.

Palm Oil

** Palm prices could regain some footing March 27-31 on the back of healthy exports and weaker production after the market plummeted March 20-24 on selloffs in rival oils.

** Export estimates for Malaysia over March 1-20 rose 30.38% month on month to 929,274 mt, according to cargo surveyor SGS. Other surveyors also gave strong estimates for the period.

** Malaysia's export data for March is scheduled for release March 27-31, with the market expecting strong outflows.

** The FOB Indonesia crude palm oil price fell to $929/mt March 24 and the CFR India CPO price to $972/mt, both down 5% week on week, S&P Global data showed.

Biodiesel

** With EU biodiesel premiums slipping over March 20-24, China's UCOME offers slipped to $1,100/mt FOB and bids below $1,000/mt FOB, while Malaysian UCOME producers declined to peg selling ideas as the market headed south. UCO in China saw offers around $900s/mt FOB while bulk UCO loading off the Straits was pegged at $1,050/mt FOB.

** Platts assessed RED PME at $925/mt March 24, down from $992/mt March 17, S&P Global data showed.