IGC cuts 2021-22 global grain exports estimate 9 mil mt as Black Sea trade halts

The International Grains Council March 17 slashed its estimate for global grain exports in the marketing year 2021-22 by 9 million mt from February's outlook to 415 million mt, driven by a fall in corn and wheat outflows from the Black Sea region.

"Commercial Black Sea port loadings are currently suspended in Ukraine," the IGC report said.

The council also pointed out that despite Russian terminals functioning in the Black Sea region, shipments have been hampered by financial restrictions on Russia.

Grains trade from the Black Sea came to a halt after Russia invaded Ukraine Feb. 24. According to the IGC, the Black Sea region accounts for around 30% of the global wheat exports and more than 17% of corn trade across the world.

The European Union, the US, India, and Brazil may partially offset supply shortfall from the Black Sea, the report said.

The IGC in its March update scaled up its estimates for global grains production by 3 million mt to 2.284 million mt.

It has reduced its estimate for global grain consumption to 2.278 billion mt from 2.286 billion mt and sees global carryover stocks increasing to 607 million mt from 596 million mt.

For corn, the IGC has reduced its estimate for global exports to 173 million mt, down 6 million mt from the previous estimate.

Corn output estimates were increased to 1.207 billion mt from 1.203 billion mt seen in February. The IGC also reduced the consumption estimate for 2021-22 by 2 million mt to 1.197 billion mt, but it also increased the forecast for corn carryover stocks to 287 million mt from 278 million mt seen last month.

Global wheat trade estimates were reduced to 194 million mt from 197 million mt seen earlier, but the IGC has maintained its global output estimate of 781 million mt.

It reduced its projection for global wheat consumption to 778 million mt from 781 million mt seen last month. It has also increased its projection for global carryover stocks to 281 million mt from 278 million mt.

For rice, production estimates were increased to 514 million mt from 510 million mt seen last month, the council said.

Its global rice trade estimate increased by 2 million mt to 51 million mt while the global rice consumption forecast rose sharply by 5 million mt to 514 million mt.

It maintained global carryover stocks at 181 million mt.

The forecast for global soybean production in 2021-22 was reduced by 3 million mt on the month to 350 million mt, the IGC said.

The IGC also reduced the estimate for global soybean consumption to 362 million mt from 363 million mt seen in February. It has also reduced its trade projection to 159 million mt from 161 million mt.

Global carryover stocks for soybean were reduced to 42 million mt from 43 million mt seen last month.