Energy Scenarios
Explore alternative future energy and emissions pathways
Our energy outlooks and scenarios offer best-in-class data and reports that illustrate how climate policy, the energy fuel mix and emissions trajectories may evolve, allowing organizations like yours to tailor strategies to align with future demands and mitigate potential disruptions.
Our new Integrated Energy Scenarios tool elevates our existing capabilities, enabling you to explore more deeply our scenarios and net-zero cases. By interacting directly with the complex data series that underpin each outlook and conducting in-depth comparative analyses, you can identify the Essential Intelligence required to adapt your business strategy to an evolving energy transition.
Five Scenarios, Two Net-zero Cases
Our five different pathways out to 2050 illustrate the pace of change in long-term global energy supply, demand, and trade, based on current views and assumptions about economic growth, markets, policy, consumer behavior, and technology. Our three bottom-up plausible energy-integrated forecasts to 2050 and two net-zero cases are constructed backward starting with a predetermined end point of global net-zero emissions by 2050. The two net-zero cases illustrate two potential examples of how the world's vast energy infrastructure would need to be reshaped in less than three decades, to keep the 1.5C climate target within reach.
Built on a robust data foundation, this service leverages an extensive array of proprietary and industry data inputs, meticulously curated by our experts. This strategic advantage ensures that our model outputs and scenarios provide a comprehensive and accurate representation of the energy sector across various industries, creating a significant competitive edge.
The scenarios and net-zero cases chart the range of potential energy and GHG emissions outcomes that could arise from the uncertain markets of today.
Inflections (Base Case): +2.5ºC
This scenario envisions that fundamental changes across government, markets and society set a sustained long-term energy transition in motion.
Green Rules: +1.8ºC
Under this scenario leaders and governments in key markets are compelled to take momentous steps to address threats to energy, public health, economic wellbeing and climate security.
Discord: +3.1ºC
Under Discord scenario geopolitical tensions worsen as key international relationships fracture, and the world becomes increasingly divided and prone to conflict.
Accelerated CCS (ACCS) Net-Zero Case
This scenario describes the energy implications of meeting the Paris climate accord goal via accelerated commercialization of Carbon Capture and Storage.
Multitech Mitigation (MTM) Net-Zero Case
Multitech Mitigation (MTM) assumes an emphasis on diversification of energy supply and electrification across all sectors with a much smaller amount of CCS use, to meet the Paris climate accord goal.
Inflections base case is updated quarterly, while other scenarios are updated annually.
Some of the key constituents of a scenario output are:
- Long-term integrated energy outlooks
- Fuel price forecasts
- Carbon price forecast
- Emissions projections
- EV penetration forecasts
- Hydrogen penetration
- CCUS share of greenhouse gases
- Renewable and nuclear share of power generation
- Analytical reports
Key Benefits
Benchmark your Forecasts
Compare company forecasts for growth, energy demand and supply, fuel mix, climate policy, technology penetration, and emissions pathways against the S&P Global independent scenarios.
Leverage Scenarios for Long-Term Planning
Utilize one or more of the S&P scenarios for your internal modelling and as benchmark for long-term projections, budgeting, and planning.
Stress-Test your Strategies
Use scenarios to test and assess resilience of business strategies in the face of uncertainty and energy transition.
Understand your Position in the Market
Identify risks and opportunities in the energy transition.
Pivot your Strategy More Effectively
Respond quickly to change by monitoring signposts.
Integrated Energy Scenarios Tool
Analyze the impact of nine pre-defined assumptions against our base-case scenario with the Sensitivity Editor, quickly creating “What if?” analyses. What if the price of oil drops? What if electrification rates increase? See the impacts across energy demand, sector energy consumption, or GHG emissions in moments. Then use our Scenario Builder to adjust assumptions within the data for any of our five outlooks, allowing you to run customized sensitivities that enhance your understanding of potential energy futures. This powerful functionality enables you to obtain results in a matter of hours instead of weeks or months, revolutionizing your workflows.
Our Integrated Energy Scenarios capability allows you to enhance your strategic agility and more quickly adapt to shifting market conditions. Building on the most complete cross-commodity integrated data, analysis and forecasts, this powerful new tool illustrates the pace of change in long-term global energy supply, demand and trade. And as a customer benefit of all our services, you always have access to our experts for any specific questions you may have.
Armed with the depth of analytical capabilities only available from S&P Global Commodity Insights, you can consider your future in the energy transition from every angle and feel truly confident about your position for success.
Product Features
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Energy Scenarios Outlooks
With Integrated Energy Scenarios, you can access 11 customizable Power BI dashboards providing a comprehensive view of annual and monthly (Inflections) scenario outputs. The dashboards allow you to zoom-out and assess the long-term energy trends as well as dig deep into individual themes. These include:
- Energy Balance
- Primary Energy Demand
- Fossil Fuel Consumption
- Final Sector Energy Consumption
- Power Demand
- Hydrogen Production
- Fossil Fuel Production
- Net Energy Trade
- GHG Emissions
- GDP
- Benchmark Prices
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Scenario Builder
Our new scenario modeling capability allows you to input your own datasets across nine themes into the S&P scenarios to create your own bespoke output, compare the results with other bespoke or S&P Global Commodity Insights scenarios, and share with your colleagues. You can input granular time-series data for:
- Renewable Power
- Carbon Prices
- EV Penetration
- Electrification
- Energy Prices
- Final Sector Energy Intensity
- GDP
- Hydrogen Penetration
- Nuclear Power
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Sensitivity Editor
This feature gives you the ability to quickly conduct “what-if” analyses on our base case across nine model assumptions and assess the impact on key outlook results. These include:
- GDP Growth
- Brent Price
- Renewable Penetration
- EV Penetration
- CO2 Price
- Hydrogen Penetration
- Electrification
- Nuclear Penetration
- Energy Efficiency
With Integrated Energy Scenarios, you can access 11 customizable Power BI dashboards providing a comprehensive view of annual and monthly (Inflections) scenario outputs. The dashboards allow you to zoom-out and assess the long-term energy trends as well as dig deep into individual themes. These include:
- Energy Balance
- Primary Energy Demand
- Fossil Fuel Consumption
- Final Sector Energy Consumption
- Power Demand
- Hydrogen Production
- Fossil Fuel Production
- Net Energy Trade
- GHG Emissions
- GDP
- Benchmark Prices
Data & Distribution
Get the edge in today’s global markets with our Essential Intelligence® delivered through the providers and platforms which suit you.
Desktop & Mobile
API Solutions
Data via Excel Add-in
Cloud
Key Sectors
Oil & Gas
Chemicals & Refining
Power & Utilities
Financial Institutions
Mining & Metals
Industrials
Governments & Institutions
Use Cases
Strategic Planners, Researchers and Analysts
Refine internal forecasts and long-term energy outlooks, evaluate strategic options against S&P Global independent scenarios, assess the impacts of supply and demand assumptions, identify strengths and weaknesses under different market conditions, and gain insights on relevant climate policies and technologies to support decarbonization and net zero commitments.
C-level Executives
Gain insights into climate policy and energy transition impacts on profitability, navigate trends amid uncertainty, communicate the long-term business environment to stakeholders, and evaluate and identify alternative business strategies in response to evolving energy dynamics.
Sustainability Managers
Understand global climate policies and benchmarks to develop effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, ensure compliance with regulatory reporting, communicate decarbonization efforts to stakeholders, and evaluate resilience and emissions reduction strategies amid the energy transition.
Energy Procurement/Management Teams
Hedge against uncertainties in energy procurement driven by climate policies and market dynamics, assess the effects of alternative fuels and renewable sources on demand, optimize procurement strategies while mitigating risks, and leverage detailed assessments of energy supply and demand drivers for better contract negotiations
Business Development Managers
Understand the evolving electricity generation landscape and assess the risks and opportunities presented by emerging technologies, shifts in fossil fuel usage, and rising electricity demand driven by electrification.
Investors/Asset Managers
Gain insights into future energy outlooks, evaluate the implications of high and low emissions scenarios on asset valuation and portfolio strategy, assess climate-related risks and opportunities, analyze the effects of climate policies and technological advancements on returns, and demonstrate resilience in a low-carbon environment through scenario analysis required for capital deployment.
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