Demography And Demand: Growth Scenarios For 2040

Published March 2003

Demographics - namely population and per capita incomes - are key determinants of chemical demand. This report looks at demographic trends to address a long-running question: Are the good times over for good, will chemicals ever return to high growth? The answer, according to demographic-based scenarios of ethylene consumption in 2040, is both yes and no. On the 'yes' side, the scenarios suggest annual consumption growth of 2-3% in 2000-2040. This is much less than the 8-9% seen on average from 1960-2000. On the 'no' side, the industry's absolute output will increase at least as much in 2000-2040 as it did in 1960-2000, i.e. by a minimum of 90 million tonnes. That is a tremendous amount of growth for 2000-2040, albeit off a much larger base than for 1960-2000.