Singapore's net-zero by 2050 target realistic and technically viable: government report

Singapore says it is technically viable and realistic for its power sector to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, while maintaining energy security and affordability, according to a March 22 report outlining the roadmap for its energy transition.

The roadmap, published by its regulator the Energy Market Authority, says that electricity imports, hydrogen, solar, and energy storage systems will be the cornerstone of Singapore's energy system, while new low-carbon supply alternatives and carbon markets will play key roles as well.

The report makes three assumptions -- that electricity demand will rise in the coming decades due to economic growth, digitalization, and electrification of transport; solar and battery storage will become cheaper with economies of scale; and distributed energy resources such as solar and energy storage systems will proliferate, requiring significant investment in infrastructure such as the power grid.

The power sector accounts for around 40% of Singapore's overall emissions, the EMA said. It said Singapore's electricity demand has increased from about 42 TWh in 2009 to about 53 TWh in 2020 at a compound annual growth rate of 2.2%, and annual electricity demand and peak demand are projected to grow at a CAGR of between 2.8% and 3.2% in the next decade.

"Energy-intensive industrial activities such as advanced manufacturing and energy and chemical activities would likely continue to play a key role in Singapore's economy and will add up to a significant share of electricity demand," the report said, adding that emerging sectors like the Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G wireless technologies are expected to drive electricity demand growth even higher.

"While electrification could reduce overall carbon emissions through greater efficiency -- for example, the use of an EV would generate only half the amount of CO2 compared to a similar vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine (ICE) -- it would contribute to overall electricity demand growth," the report said.

CLEAN ENERGY SUPPLY

Meanwhile, Singapore's electricity supply will be based on four primary sources -- natural gas, solar power, regional power grids and electricity imports, and low-carbon alternatives, the report said.

It said natural gas will continue to play a role in the net-zero power sector. Singapore also has the potential to deploy up to 8.6 gigawatt peak (GWp) of solar power by 2050, which would only represent about 10% of projected electricity demand by then.

In one of its scenarios, the EMA expects electricity imports to be the main source for electricity, making up about 60% of supply. This would be backed up by a mixture of fast-response solutions such as battery storage "to cater for instantaneous losses, and long-term backup solutions such as fast-starting open-cycle gas turbines or gas engines to withstand prolonged outages," the report said.

A second scenario sees low-carbon hydrogen accounting for more than half of the energy mix, replacing natural gas as the main generation fuel.

In the hydrogen-dominant scenario, Singapore conducts trials in the early 2020s to establish a hydrogen supply chain, invests in hydrogen-ready infrastructure such as gas power plants that can use hydrogen-enriched natural gas and signs contracts to import hydrogen "while retaining the contractual flexibility to benefit from future reductions in hydrogen prices."

A new hydrogen import terminal would commence operations by the early 2040s, immediately meeting half of Singapore's energy demand in this scenario.

The report's diversified energy scenario expects 80% of the power mix to come from electricity imports and hydrogen, split equally. It also lays out options for geothermal and nuclear energy to account for around 10% of the power mix.

"Given that the cost of solar and wind power generation technologies has fallen in recent years, there is a high possibility that the cost of green hydrogen may follow a similar pattern and become cost-competitive within 15 to 20 years," the report said.

ROLE OF CARBON CREDITS

"While mitigating emissions should continue to be Singapore's priority for the power sector, there may be situations in which there are residual emissions that are inherently difficult to abate," the report said.

It said the status of global carbon credit markets by 2050 will determine their use to offset hard-to-abate emissions in a cost-effective manner.

Singapore should develop local carbon market capabilities, collaborate with the private sector to scale up the voluntary carbon market and support the growth of the carbon services ecosystem like carbon trading and emissions reporting to maintain its status as an international trading hub.

"The journey ahead will be very unlike the global energy sector of the last 200 years, where the transition was slow and the pace conservative. Rather, it will be fast and turbulent, if only because the world realizes that there is little time left for irreversible climate effects to be headed off," Choi Shing Kwok, chairman of the Energy 2050 Committee, said.