Russia, Ukraine to start ceasefire negotiations immediately: Trump

Russia and Ukraine will begin ceasefire negotiations immediately to end the war between the two countries, US President Donald Trump said May 19.

"Just completed my two hour call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia," Trump said on his Truth Social media platform. "I believe it went very well. Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War."

Crude futures edged lower following Trump's call with Putin but were little changed on the day as details remained thin. NYMEX front-month crude settled up 20 cents at $62.69/b.

Trump suggested there were financial benefits for Russia if a peace agreement were reached.

"Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic 'bloodbath' is over, and I agree," he said. "There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED."

The two countries have been fighting since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. As a result, the US and Europe have placed sanctions on Russia, including a $60/b price cap on Russian crude exports and the curtailment of Russian natural gas flows into Europe.

Those sanctions have already bitten into Russia's crude and condensate production, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts.

"Limited investment is expected to significantly impact oil production over the next decade," the analysts said in a report. "Crude output is expected to decline by 1.6 million b/d, falling from 9.0 million b/d in 2025 to 7.4 million b/d by 2035."

S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst Laurent Ruseckas said the Trump announcement was neutral for European natural gas prices.

"Given that the TTF paper market no longer seems to reflect any expectation that Russian pipeline gas will return to Europe in significant volumes, the call is NEUTRAL rather than bullish for TTF prices," Ruseckas said.

"The fundamental barrier to a peace agreement remains the huge gap between the terms apparently endorsed by the US -- based on an April 17 media leak -- and terms that Russia would consider acceptable," he said. "Evidence suggests that Russia's leadership continues to believe it has the upper hand both militarily and politically if the conflict drags on, and that it could manage the human and economic costs of ongoing war."