Biden raises US emissions reduction target to 66% for 2035

The US plans to cut its economywide greenhouse emissions by 61%-66% by 2035 from 2005 levels under a new pledge the Biden administration is submitting under the Paris Agreement on climate change, White House officials have said.

The new goal, known as a nationally determined contribution, specifies plans to cut methane emissions by 35% over the next decade.

The updated climate goal was reached after comprehensive analysis and is expected to be pursued largely by states and municipalities that remain committed to Paris Agreement goals during the incoming Trump administration, senior Biden administration officials told reporters ahead of the Dec. 19 announcement.

President-elect Donald Trump has said he will roll back US climate policies and once again withdraw the US from the landmark climate treaty. Under the Paris Agreement, nations agreed to try to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C.

Even without federal help, the US could hit the lower end of the newly issued 2035 goal, Biden administration officials said.

"The 2035 climate goal is both a reflection of what we've already accomplished ... and what we believe that the US can and should achieve in the future," said John Podesta, President Joe Biden's top climate diplomat. "We're looking to governors, mayors, business leaders and more to carry this important work forward because the rest of the world will now be looking to them to show how many Americans still care about the future of our planet."

How much the US will actually reduce its emissions remains to be seen, according to Anna Mosby, S&P Global Commodity Insights lead analyst for global climate policy.

"The target included in this NDC is undoubtedly ambitious, but significant questions remain around the feasibility and durability of the NDC under the incoming Trump administration," Mosby said of the updated target. "Even under the S&P Global Commodity Insights Green Rules case, in which strong action leads to revolutionary changes in energy supply and use, the United States is only able to reduce emissions by 55% by 2035."

A coalition of at least 10 states, 361 local governments, 173 investors and nearly 3,000 businesses formed during the first Trump administration issued a statement Dec. 12 pledging to accelerate climate progress in coming years. The America Is All In coalition said it represents nearly two-thirds of Americans and about 75% of the US gross domestic product.

A University of Maryland study published in September suggests that the US could slash economywide emissions by 65% by 2035 under current policies, in line with the new NDC, but would only reach 48% if policies are scaled back.

US off track to meet its 2030 goal

The US rejoined the Paris Agreement in February 2021 after a short departure during Trump's first term and submitted a pledge in April 2021 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% to 52% by 2030.

Biden administration officials said their analysis shows that the US is now on a trajectory to get to a 45% to 46% cut, which leaves some "additional work to do" over the next five years to close the gap.

The latest emissions data from the US Environmental Protection Agency shows economywide US emissions dropped 16.7% between 2005 and 2022. However, the effects of clean energy investments under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, along with expected impacts from building electrification and lower-emitting transportation, will emerge over the coming years and likely accelerate emission reductions, researchers predict.

The Rhodium Group projected in early 2024 that the US must cut economywide emissions by 6.9% annually between 2024 and 2030 — more than three times its current rate — for the US to meet its 2030 pledge. Researchers with the group estimated that US emissions dropped 1.9% from 2022 to 2023.

Still, Biden administration officials struck an optimistic tone, stressing that the decarbonization of the US economy is already happening and will continue over the coming years. The 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law and 2022 Senate ratification of the Kigali Amendments to phase down production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons also suggest that Democrats and Republicans can find common ground on policies that benefit the economy, administration officials said.

Under Biden, private-sector investments in domestic clean energy and manufacturing projects have reached $450 billion, the White House said. Most of those investments have been made in Republican-controlled states.