Russian gas transit via Ukraine up 6% in January-November: AGPU

Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine totaled 14.17 Bcm in the first 11 months of 2024, an increase of 6% year on year, data published Dec. 6 by Ukrainian gas industry group AGPU showed.

Despite the ongoing war, Russia's Gazprom has continued to send gas to Europe via Ukraine, with volumes delivered at the Sudzha interconnection point on the Russia-Ukraine border at a rate of some 42 million cu m/d for most of 2024.

But while transit volumes are up year on year in 2024, they remain well below contracted levels.

"In November, Gazprom pumped 1.26 Bcm, or 38% of the contracted volume," AGPU said. "This is 1% more than in 2023 but 59% less than in the same period in 2021."

It comes as the five-year gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine is due to expire at the end of 2024 and Ukrainian officials have repeatedly said Kyiv would not extend the contract with Moscow.

Market concerns over the future of Ukrainian transit have helped make European gas prices for January and February 2025 delivery the most expensive of all future delivery periods along the entire TTF curve out to 2030.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the January 2025 TTF contract on Dec. 5 at Eur46.54/MWh and the February 2025 contract at Eur46.58/MWh, compared with a day-ahead assessment of Eur46.08/MWh.

Russian gas transit via Ukraine was as high as 117 Bcm in 2008 but fell to just 14.65 Bcm last year, well down on the contracted level of 40 Bcm.

Exchange sales

Separately, AGPU said some 352 million cu m of gas was sold on the Ukraine Energy Exchange in November at a weighted average price of Hryvnia 15,127/1,000 cu m ($364/1,000 cu m).

Most of the gas sold on the exchange last month was bought by state-owned Naftogaz. It bought 238 million cu m -- or 67% of the total.

Gas was sold on the exchange by a number of producers including UkrNafta (48 million cu m), UNB (40 million cu m) and Nadra-Geoinvest (6 million cu m), AGPU said.

AGPU said that since the beginning of 2024 market participants had sold 1.89 Bcm of gas on the exchange and 3.23 Bcm since the start of 2022.

Private producers and traders began selling gas on the Ukrainian Energy Exchange in April 2023 after a fall in consumption and purchases by the industrial sector in the country.