US MIDTERMS 2022: Democrats keep grip on US Senate, helping protect climate goals

Democrats' success at holding on to the US Senate in the midterm elections will help them sustain their party's efforts to decarbonize the energy sector.

Not only will they be able to advance energy agency nominees and judges, they also can more easily implement the Inflation Reduction Act and other major climate and energy laws enacted in recent years.

But policy experts offered competing views of just how much substantial energy legislation could get done in the upcoming Congress, with slim margins now expected in both chambers, and control of the US House of Representatives still in play.

The Associated Press Nov. 10 called the Nevada Senate race for Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, bringing the party to 50 votes needed for a majority, given Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote. A runoff election in Georgia Dec. 6 will determine whether Democrats will have 51 votes in the Senate.

Continued Democratic control of the Senate is "obviously good news for the Biden agenda going forward," said Sasha Mackler, executive director of the Bipartisan Policy Center's energy program.

A sustained Senate majority will give Democrats more control of Congress' energy and climate policy focus regardless of which party is in charge of the House, Mackler said in an interview.

In addition, Democrats will be in a better position to oversee implementation of the bipartisan infrastructure law of 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act, which contained billions of dollars to support the clean energy transition, said Joseph Majkut, director of the energy security and climate change program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Slim margins

But slim margins could vex efforts to move major legislation.

Former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Neil Chatterjee, in an email Nov. 14, said he was still waiting on the House results, but that assuming the House flips to Republican control, it was hard for him to see "anything significant" getting done.

"I do hope that small, wonky, technical bills will be able to get through but that would mean going on the suspension calendar in the House and by unanimous consent in the Senate," he said. "Nothing that pleases progressives nor conservatives will make that list."

That's in line with policy watchers who expect that a House with slim Republican control would be difficult to govern, with small factions able to derail legislation.

"We're headed towards gridlock," said one energy lobbyist, who asked to remain anonymous, anticipating House Republicans are likely to fight amongst themselves.

"This idea of some sort of bipartisan kumbaya on permitting seems like a stretch," he said.

Still, Scott Segal of Bracewell's Policy Resolution Group remained optimistic Nov. 14 there would be "plenty of folks on both sides of the aisle" interested in energy policy outcomes, given the regionalism around energy politics.

"There is an emerging conversation already about a well-tailored clean electricity standard as a follow on to the [Inflation Reduction Act] passage earlier this year," he said.

He also anticipated continued interest in passing meaningful energy infrastructure permitting reform.

Mackler also expected permitting reform will "be a big part of the 2023 conversation." Despite disagreements over transmission siting and other areas, both parties have stressed the need for faster and simpler permitting to get new energy projects built, he said.

Nominations

Continued Democratic control likely keeps Senator Joe Manchin, Democrat-West Virginia, in a powerful spot as chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

But Manchin's tight lock on energy legislation and nominations as a critical swing vote in the Senate could be loosened somewhat should Democrats win the Georgia runoff race and hold 51 votes total in the chamber.

That could open another avenue for FERC Chairman Richard Glick's renomination, which is currently stalled in committee by Manchin, if Democratic leadership seeks to move the nomination without going through the panel.

If Democrats hold 51 Senate seats, "there's some possibility that Senate leadership could move things out of committee onto the floor" regardless of Manchin's support at the committee level, Mackler said.

"But I think that's really complicated and might create other problems," he added.

Height energy sector analyst Benjamin Salisbury said slim control in both chambers will present challenges overall.

"Democrats' 50- or 51-seat majority in the Senate means Manchin and [Senator Kyrsten] Sinema [Democrat-Arizona] will still have a say," he said in a Nov. 14 research note. "And Republicans' rowdy caucus and projected margin in the House will make governing hard for whomever leads the party."