Russian gas exports to Europe via TurkStream drop in June on planned outage

Russian gas supplies via the TurkStream pipeline to southeast Europe fell to an average of 37 million cu m/d in June due to planned maintenance that reduced flows to zero for five days, an analysis of S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed July 2.

Russian gas deliveries via TurkStream into Europe at the Strandzha 2 entry point on the Turkey-Bulgaria border totaled 1.1 Bcm in June, down from a nine-month high of 1.35 Bcm in May, the data showed.

TurkStream flows were reduced to zero from June 4-8 while planned maintenance was carried out on the pipeline.

Following the work, supplies at Strandzha 2 peaked at almost 50 million cu m/d toward the end of the month.

Russian deliveries into Europe by pipeline are currently limited to flows via the European string of TurkStream and via Ukraine entering at the Sudzha point on the Russia-Ukraine border.

Total pipeline flows to Europe -- excluding Moldova -- totaled 2.18 Bcm in June, down by 12% from May but still 24% higher year on year.

Two of the main beneficiaries of gas sent to Europe via TurkStream are Hungary and non-EU Serbia, both of which still have relatively close ties with Moscow.

Hungary is one of the few EU countries that still imports significant volumes of Russian pipeline gas and agreed to a 15-year deal in September 2021 with Gazprom for the supply of 4.5 Bcm/year.

It also imports additional volumes of Russian gas on top of contracted volumes, with total Russian gas exports to Hungary in 2023 amounting to more than 5.5 Bcm.

Russian gas via TurkStream can also be delivered to Romania, Greece, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The pipeline began flowing gas in January 2020.

Ukraine transit

Russia's Gazprom also continues to export gas to Europe via Ukraine, despite the ongoing war, with deliveries stable so far in 2024 at some 42 million cu m/d, including deliveries to Moldova.

Austria and Slovakia remain key EU buyers of Russian gas delivered via Ukraine.

However, the five-year gas transit deal between Russia and Ukraine signed in December 2019 is due to expire at the end of 2024, with the future of transit unclear.

Slovakia's SPP told Commodity Insights in May that it considered as "feasible" the creation of a European consortium to take delivery of gas at the Russia-Ukraine border to ensure continued supplies of Russian gas via Ukraine post-2024.

SPP said there were "several alternatives" as to how the situation could develop ahead of the expiry of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit contract.

"One of them is the continuation of gas transit via Ukraine in the event that a consortium of European countries takes over the ordered gas supplies from Gazprom on the Russian-Ukrainian border," SPP said.

"This possibility seems feasible to us."

And in comments to Commodity Insights on May 24, Hungary's MVM said it supported "in general any solution which contributes to the security of supply of Hungary."

Austria's OMV has, however, ruled out taking part in any such consortium.

EC position

EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson said at the end of May that she had been working on diversification options for member states likely to be affected by the end of transit.

It comes as European gas prices continue to trade well above Eur30/MWh. Platts, part of Commodity Insights, assessed the benchmark Dutch TTF month-ahead price at Eur33.43/MWh on July 1.

Simson said May 30 that all companies involved knew that the transit contract would expire at the end of 2025. "This is a known fact for everybody," she said.

"There are existing alternative corridors that could provide gas to landlocked countries that are still buyers of Russian gas."

Simson added that the EC would not accommodate any kind of contact between governments or companies and Russian counterparts.

"We will not request and we will not accommodate any kind of prolongation talks for the transit corridor via Ukraine," she said.

Ukrainian officials have also repeatedly said Kyiv would not be a party to talks with Moscow on any contract extension or renewal.