NOAA forecasts above-average 2021 hurricane season; 3-5 major storms

New York — The Atlantic basin is likely to see an above average level of tropical storm activity, including 3-5 major hurricanes during the 2021 season, officials at the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration said May 20.

In its 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook released May 20, NOAA expects the formation of 13-20 named storms, including 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes.

There is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, acting NOAA administrator Ben Friedman said.

While the 2021 season is not expected to be as active as the record-setting 2020 season, the return of a La Nina weather pattern could foster more favorable conditions for storm development and increase the chances of storm activity reaching the higher end of the forecast range, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center hurricane season outlook lead Matt Rosencrans said.

"The main trends we distilled from the 2020 hurricane season are: operators had pretty robust safety measures in place and were nimble in responding to the weather conditions in terms of evacuations and subsequent recovery," S&P Global Platts Analytics senior energy analyst Sami Yahya said. "As volatile as the 2020 season was, there was little to no long term damage to facilities and in most cases production resumed within a couple weeks or less."

The 2020 hurricane season was the most active on record with 30 named storms including 13 hurricanes, six of which became major hurricanes. It was the most disruptive season for US oil production in the past 12 years, suppressing US Gulf of Mexico crude output by around 115,000 b/d. A normal season typically takes around 20,000 b/d of output offline, according to Platts Analytics.

During the 2020 season, peak impact on production typically occurred 4 days after onset of a storm and recovery on average took 10-14 days, two-thirds of curtailed volumes were typically restored in few days but the remaining third took longer to recover, Yahya said.

"Having endured the brutal 2020 season, operators should welcome the new NOAA outlook although understandably they still need to prepare for the worst and they have already demonstrated they are up for a challenge."

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US GOM storm activity expected higher

While forecast models are unable to show precisely which areas are likely to see impacts of tropical storm activity, the above-average forecast suggests slightly more activity in the US Gulf of Mexico as well as closer to the US mainland in general, Rosencrans said, adding that there are typically twice as many landfalls seen during an active year versus an inactive one.

Notably, the random nature of storm tracks means that a season does not have to be particularly active to result in significant oil and gas disruptions. The 2008 season, with its relatively modest 16 named storms, was the second-most disruptive on record and curtailed GOM crude output by an aggregate 140,000 b/d.

The 2005 hurricane season, the second-most active on record with 28 named storms, is to-date the most disruptive for GOM operators, trimming output by around 220,000 b/d.

Beginning with the 2021 season, NOAA has changed the definition of an average season to include 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, up from 12 storms and six hurricanes previously, but left the number of average major storms unchanged at three. The increase in what comprises a normal storm season is the result of better observation and hurricane hunting technology, Rosencrans said.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through November 30, though named storms including hurricanes are frequently observed outside of these dates.