India imposes import quotas on low ash metallurgical coke from Jan-June 2025

India imposed a quantitative restriction on imports of low ash metallurgical coke from Jan. 1 to June 30, 2025, according to a gazette notification dated Dec. 26, seen by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The quarterly import quotas will be imposed origin-wise on met coke below 18% and come about seven months after the Directorate General of Trade Remedies recommended the action in late April, following a safeguard investigation that showed cheaper imports hurt the domestic coke industry.

According to the notification, met coke imports from January to June 2025 for the specified countries will only be permitted against an import authorization issued by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade.

The affected HS Codes are 27040020, 27040030, 27040040, 27040090, excluding coke fines/ coke breeze and ultra-low phosphorous metallurgical coke with phosphorous content up to 0.030% with size up to 30 mm with 5% size tolerance.

Imports from 11 countries fall under these restrictions, with Indonesia -- India's major met coke source in recent months -- expected to be hit the hardest with a quarterly import quota limit of 33,182 mt during January-March 2025 and April-June 2025.

India had imported around 364,136 mt of Indonesian met coke in Jan-March 2024 and 781,358 mt in April-June 2024, according to the latest data from S&P Global Market Intelligence's Global Trade Analytics Suite.

"They (Indonesian cokeries) might have to cut production massively while Indian cokeries will start importing more coal," an international trader said.

"[T]he allocation for Indonesia[n] coke is really small," said an Asian coke trader source, adding India is a "big market" for Indonesian coke.

Several market participants sought further clarity on the notification regarding how recently met coke import bookings with arrival in India due Jan.-March will be affected and whether there will be any penalties if the quotas are exceeded.

Indian steelmakers and trading firms booked more than 500,000 mt of Indonesian met coke for January and February shipments since the beginning of December in anticipation of the quotas, according to a trader source. The source speculated that bookings made prior to Dec. 26 would likely be exempt from the quota restrictions, though the gazette did not specify any details on this.

The notification also mentions that any unutilized quantity allocated for the first quarter shall be added to the next quarter, and in case the countries with specific quantities exhaust their allocated quota, such countries may use the available residual quantity.

Platts, part of Commodity Insights, assessed CSR 65/63 met coke prices on a CFR India basis at $276/mt on Dec. 26, hovering close to a four-year low of $269/mt touched on Sept. 10, amid weaker steel prices and subdued demand in India.

The quota limit may prompt Indian buyers to source Chinese met coke again, which had fallen out of favor due to a 5% import duty and cheaper Indonesian material. China has a quarterly import quota limit of 39,323 mt from January to March 2025 and April to June 2025.

Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how the quotas will affect Indonesian suppliers' production and export plans.

"They (Indonesian) can go find other customers in the world," an India-based coke trader said.