China's finished steel exports surpass 100 mil mt-mark over Jan-Nov

China's finished steel exports in November retreated from October, but remained at a historically high level as January-November shipments surpassed the 100 million mt mark.

Steel exports over December-February may trend downwards, but would still be relatively strong, helping to maintain low inventories in the domestic market, market participants said Dec. 10.

China's steel exports in November reached 9.278 million mt, down 17% from October, but 15.9% higher on the year, Chinese customs data showed late Dec. 10.

Over January-November, China's finished steel exports rose 22.6%, or 18.615 million mt, from a year earlier to 101.152 million mt.

As Chinese steel prices have increased since late September on China's new stimulus push, overseas order bookings for Chinese steel have declined in tandem, which could lead to a drop in exports especially over December-February, some trade sources said.

Platts assessed SS400 HRC of 3 mm thickness at $476/mt FOB China on Dec. 10, up from $436/mt FOB on Sept. 9, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed.

"But according to my knowledge, export shipments over December-February will remain strong compared with average monthly level in 2023, as weak domestic steel market has still kept Chinese steel prices attractive in global market," said a mill source.

The source expects China's steel exports to at least remain strong in the first half of 2025 but will likely slowdown in the second half given rising trade conflicts and shrinking overseas demand.

Some market participants expect China's steel exports in 2025 to fall to 80-90 million mt.

"But at least for the coming months, strong exports will continue to help ease supply pressure in the domestic market......the domestic steel market inventories are likely to stay low at least through early 2025, lending support to the steel prices," said a trade source.

China's finished steel inventories at major mills and spot markets monitored by the China Iron and Steel Association fell to 19.98 million mt as of Nov. 30, down 10.6% from early October, and 2.6% lower on the year.

November imports

Weak domestic steel demand weighed on China's finished steel imports further in November, falling 11.8% on the month and 23% on the year to 473,000 mt, according to customs data.

Steel imports over the first 11 months of 2024 fell 11.3% on the year to 6.194 million mt.

As a result, China's net finished steel exports over January-November were 94.958 million mt, up 25.7% on the year.