Australia cuts 2024-25 met coal export outlook by 6% amid lower output

Australia cut its projected metallurgical coal exports for 2024-2025 (July-June) by 6.4% to 161 million metric tons from 172 MMt projected in June 2024, data released by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources showed Sept. 30, amid lower production.

The met coal production forecast for 2024-25 was lowered by 6.3% to 165 MMt, from the 176 MMt estimated in June.

"Australian output has been adversely affected by a number of developments," the department said, citing incidents at Bowen Coking Coal’s Broadmeadow East mine, QCoal'd Byerwen mine and Anglo American’s Bowen Basin Grosvenor mine.

Anglo American subsequently lowered its second-half 2024 metallurgical division production guidance by 1 MMt-1.5 MMt, the department said.

"Production volumes for 2024-25 for BHP, Anglo American and Glencore have been revised down slightly, in line with company forward guidance," it said.

But thereafter, the ministry said met coal output for 2025-2026 will rise sharply to 175 MMt, though lower than its forecast of 177 MMt made in June.

Amid the lower projections, the department said, "India remains the key export destination for Australian metallurgical coal along with Japan, with volumes remaining relatively stable for both."

"Demand for Australian metallurgical coal is expected to remain relatively strong through the forecast period due to its diverse customer base and premium product offering," it said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed premium low-vol (PLV) hard coking coal $15.75/mt higher day on day at $204.75/mt FOB Australia on Sept. 27, while the PLV CFR China assessment was up $6/mt at $210/mt over the same period.

Iron ore exports to grow on improved output, new mines

For Australian exports of iron ore, the guidance for 2024-25 was raised to 915 MMt, up 1.1% from 905 MMt estimated in June 2024, amid "higher productivity in existing mines and ongoing ramp up of newer operations," the department said.

Rio Tinto's A$3 billion ($2.1 billion) Western Range joint venture with Baowu Steel Group is now 70% complete, the department said, and the project is expected to have a production capacity 25MMt/year with the first ore scheduled for 2025.

For the year ending June 30, 2025, Fortescue Metals Group, in July 2024, widened and raised its annual guidance to 190 million-200 million wmt from 192 million-197 million wmt. The new guidance includes about 5 million-9 million wmt from FMG's Iron Bridge magnetite mine, which began shipments in July 2023.

Mineral Resources’ Onslow iron project continues to ramp up and is expected to produce 35MMt/year of iron ore when fully operational.

The department cautioned that geopolitical developments pose risks to the outlook for commodity markets and an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could impact the global supply of oil, gas, and LNG.

Also, the weather may emerge as a major factor "should a La Niña weather cycle emerge," the department said, as "Australian miners may experience a repeat of the wet weather and the associated flooding of mines, transport routes and ports that hampered output in the 2021-2023 period."

Platts had assessed the 62% Fe Iron Ore Index at $101.80/dry metric ton CFR North China on Sept. 27, up $3.75/dmt day on day.