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Metals & Mining Theme, Non-Ferrous
June 24, 2025
HIGHLIGHTS
Chinese cobalt prices rise slightly
Price impact gradual
Indonesian supplies may ease tightness
The Democratic Republic of Congo's extension of its cobalt export ban could tighten global supply and push up prices across the supply chain in the near term, particularly impacting China, industry sources said June 24.
China, the world's largest cobalt consumer, relies heavily on imports from the DRC to meet the needs of its cobalt smelters, which are integral to global battery production and other technology industries. China is cobalt-deficient, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions.
However, sources said the ban's impact is expected to be gradual and contingent on downstream demand recovery. A sharp price increase could suppress demand, and if demand remains weak, price gains may be limited.
Currently, price increases are concentrated in the upstream segment of the supply chain and have not fully reached downstream sectors, such as lithium cobalt oxide and other battery materials, sources said.
Offers for cobalt products rose slightly following the ban extension, but consumers remained cautious, market participants said.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed battery-grade 20.5% Co cobalt sulfate at Yuan 45,000 ($6,270)/mt DDP China on June 23, up Yuan 500/mt day over day but down Yuan 500/mt week over week. The price remained above the pre-ban level in June despite a slight retreat amid weak demand.
Upstream, Platts assessed 30% Co cobalt hydroxide at $11.30/lb CIF China on June 23, up 10 cents/lb day over day and week over week.
Some sources said the export ban can only temporarily reduce supply rather than substantially reverse medium-to-long-term supply-demand dynamics.
The global refined cobalt market is projected to see a supply surplus of 3,000 mt in 2025, with the surplus expanding through 2029, according to Commodity Insights' Commodity Briefing Service Plus report.
The DRC recently extended its temporary cobalt export suspension for an additional three months, following a four-month suspension announced Feb. 22 due to persistently low global cobalt prices.
Since shipping cobalt from the DRC to China takes about three months, the supply impact of the February suspension is only beginning to materialize in June. With the ban now extended until Sept. 22, cobalt-consuming countries, particularly Chinese smelters, face heightened risks of supply shortages.
Chinese smelters' cobalt inventories have been declining and are expected to reach lower levels by August due to the extended ban, market sources said.
Previously, Chinese companies were hesitant to stockpile low-priced cobalt raw materials due to prolonged price declines and relatively ample domestic inventories. Without prior large-scale purchases, most cobalt companies now rely on existing stockpiles to maintain production, sources said.
As DRC exports tighten, other cobalt-producing countries, such as Indonesia, may ramp up production to partially fill the supply gap, though this could affect the long-term balance of the cobalt market, sources said.
However, some sources said Indonesia may not be enough to compensate for the huge gap from the DRC in the short term.
China's cobalt intermediates imports from Indonesia surged to 2,055 mt in 2024, accounting for 0.3% of China's total imports, compared to 87 mt in 2025, according to China's customs data.
Indonesia's share of global cobalt supply could triple over the next five years to over 83,000 mt by 2029, Commodity Insights analysts said in the Commodity Briefing Service Plus report.
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