Metals & Mining Theme, Non-Ferrous, Ferrous

April 09, 2025

FACTBOX: Trump imposes 90-day pause on country-specific tariffs, increases duties on China

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HIGHLIGHTS

Trump leaves in place a 10% tariff on most countries

Mexico and Canada still exempt

China's duties increased to 125%

US President Donald Trump paused country-specific "reciprocal tariffs" on April 9, less than a day after they went live while leaving a broad 10% tariff in place and ratcheting up duties on China.

The shock move, dropped in a social media post, quickly lifted many commodity prices including oil, gas, copper and aluminum.

However, Trump said the US would impose a 125% tariff on China, up from 84%, as a consequence of China's own retaliation. The new 10% tariffs will not apply to Canada and Mexico, who had been exempted from the April 2 tariffs, a White House official told Platts, a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Trump's social media post indicated that countries that had retaliated against the US duties would still see high tariff rates, raising questions about what rates the EU would see after it authorized new tariffs earlier on April 9. However, the White House official said that because the EU tariffs had not gone into effect, the block would only be subject to the 10% blanket rates.

On April 2, Trump announced sweeping tariffs on most US trading partners, imposing duties scaled to the administration's calculation of tariffs and non-tariff measures imposed on the US by trading partners. The effort is part of the President's strategy to eliminate US trade deficits with other countries and boost domestic manufacturing.

The hefty tariffs weighed on commodity prices amid expectations the import duties would weaken the global economy, and the pause turned around prices on key commodities and the broader stock market.

China responded to the US tariffs with an 84% import duty set to go live on April 10.

"At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable," Trump said in the April 9 social media post.

The president also flagged poor markets in recent days in taking questions from reporters on April 9. "Just be cool, it's going to work out," he said, adding that in making decisions over tariffs "you have to have flexibility."

Many other tariffs remain active, apart from the 10% universal tariff, which is still historically very high for the US.

Prices

  • NYMEX front-month crude settled up $2.77/b on the day at $62.35/b, and up from an intraday low of $55.12/b.
  • Shortly after the announcement, ICE front-month Brent settled at $65.48/b, up $2.66 on the day and up from an intraday low of $58.40/b.
  • The tariff news jolted NYMEX natural gas futures prices, which had declined significantly across the last three trading sessions. After dipping to a two-month low the day before, the prompt-month NYMEX futures contract was up 8-9% to $3.75/MMBtu in the afternoon of April 9 following Trump's announcement.
  • In metals, COMEX spot US copper prices jumped from about $4.21/lb before the announcement and traded up to over $4.40/lb within a couple of hours after Trump's tariff redirection.
  • The COMEX spot gold price fell from over $3,100/oz just before Trump's announcement, to about $3,071/oz an hour later. The gold price started to recover in subsequent intraday trading.
  • In pre-announcement metal prices, Platts assessed the spot 99.7% P1020 US Aluminum Transaction Premium at 37.60 cents/lb plus LME cash, delivered Midwest on April 8, up 61.0% since the start of 2025.
  • Platts assessed the daily TSI US hot-rolled coil index at $920/st on an ex-works Indiana basis on April 8, up 33.3% since the start of 2025.
  • Platts assessed SS400 HRC of 3 mm thickness unchanged day over day at $464/mt FOB China April 9, down 5.7% since the start of 2025.
  • Platts assessed domestic HRC prices in Northern Europe at Eur645/mt ex-works Ruhr April 9, up 15.2% since the start of 2025.

Tariffs state-of-play

  • Other than China, most countries now face the much lower tariff of 10%.
  • The US created a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal tariffs that hit many Asian countries in particular, including 46% on Vietnam, 36% on Thailand, 49% on Cambodia, 37% on Bangladesh, 26% on India and 24% on Japan.
  • A 20% duty the US imposed on China prior to the April 2 announcement remains in place. These duties stack with the 125% tariff imposed on April 9. The 25% US tariffs on global aluminum and steel remain in place.
  • Likewise, a 25% tariff on automobiles and automobile parts remains in place.
  • Goods from Canada and Mexico still face a 25% tariff, except for USMCA-compliant goods, which are tariff-free, according to the White House official. Energy and critical minerals, if they are not USMCA compliant, face a 10% fee.