India's finished steel imports from China sink 69.2% YOY in Feb

India's imports of finished steel from China sank 69.18% year over year to about 94,000 mt in February, from 305,000 mt in February 2024, according to calculations by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, based on data from the Joint Plant Committee.

Due to the lower February inflows, India's finished steel imports from China from April 2024 to February 2025 fell 5.3% year over year to 2.41 million mt. India's fiscal year runs from April to March.

As a result, the gap in overall inflows between China and leading supplier South Korea widened to about 239,900 mt over April-February, compared with 125,200 mt in April-January.

South Korea retained its position as the leading supplier of finished steel to India for April-February with 2.65 million mt of inflows, up 7.1% year over year, while China was in second place.

Over April-January, South Korea overtook China to become the leading supplier of finished steel to India.

Japan ranked third, contributing 1.92 million mt to India's imports over April-February, up 69.7% from the previous year.

The switch in China's and South Korea's positions was due to the expiry of the Bureau of Indian Standards certification for overseas steel mills in November, which caused some Chinese mills to reduce hot-rolled coil exports to India.

HRC imports show downtrend

India's HRC imports began to fall in November by 50.4% year over year to 280,200 mt, swinging from an 84.6% year-over-year rise to 427,900 mt in October, JPC data showed.

The country's HRC imports continued to post consecutive year-over-year falls, with December's 43.1% decline to 209,500 mt, January's 32.9% drop to 235,700 mt and February's 69.1% slump to 131,000 mt.

India's HRC inflows from China over April-February totaled 363,800 mt, down 39.3% from about 599,800 mt the previous year.

Inflows from China and other foreign steelmakers are not expected to improve after India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies on March 18 recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of non-alloy and alloy steel flat products for 200 days. However, the duty is still a recommendation, with the final decision pending and likely taking a while to be announced. The DGTR had invited industry comments within 30 days and will hold an oral hearing before making a final determination.

Recent BIS approvals for Vietnamese mills Formosa and Hoa Phat had earlier raised concerns in the domestic market, but with the threat of looming safeguard duties, imports will be discouraged.

Vietnam was the fourth-largest finished steel supplier to India in April-February at 688,000 mt, down 4.3% year over year.

Domestic prices have also strengthened following the safeguard news, with further expectations of a price hike in coming months. In Mumbai, market sources are anticipating a Rupees 1,500-2,000/mt ($17-$23/mt) hike in steel mill's list prices for April.

Platts assessed the spot price of IS2062, 2.5-10 mm thick HRC, excluding an 18% goods and services tax, Rupees 500/mt higher day over day at Rupees 50,500/mt ex-works Mumbai on March 19, a day after the gazette notification was out.

On March 25, Platts assessed IS2062, 2.5-10 mm thick HRC at a higher Rupees 51,500/mt as the market continues to strengthen following the DGTR's recommendations.