South Korea surpasses China to become India's top steel supplier amid trade protectionism

South Korea surpassed China as the leading supplier of finished steel to India from April 2024 to January 2025, compared with the same period the year before, according to the latest provisional data from the Joint Plant Committee, amid trade protectionism.

Imports from South Korea rose 11.7% to 2.44 million mt in the 10-month period, while inflows from China increased 3.4% to 2.31 million mt.

The change in ranks was likely due to the expiration of the Bureau of Indian Standards certification for overseas steel mills in November, which resulted in some Chinese mills losing access to export hot-rolled coils to India.

From April 2024 to December 2024, China was the top supplier with 2.14 million mt, followed by South Korea with 2.1 million mt. China was also the biggest supplier from April 2023 to January 2024, supplying 2.24 million mt, followed by South Korea with 2.18 million mt.

Japan maintained its spot as the third-largest supplier with 1.79 million mt, surging 88.6% over April 2024-January 2025 from a year earlier. Vietnam ranked fourth with 678,400 mt, down 4.7% year over year.

An influx of imports amid subdued domestic steel demand led India to start a safeguard investigation on flat steel products in December 2024, with market participants awaiting the final decision. Market sources expect the imposition of a safeguard duty to significantly curb imports and boost steel prices.

Spotlight on flat steel

Flat steel products dominated India's imports from April 2024 to January 2025, with 7.95 million mt, a 22.1% increase from the previous year.

During the reported 10 months, India imported 363,800 mt of HRC/strips from China, down from about 438,100 mt in the previous year.

The year-over-year decline in the HRC/strip inflows from China was offset by a 23.7% rise in steel plate imports to 301,800 mt and a 14.1% increase in galvanized plated/coated steel inflows to 329,400 mt.

In January 2025 alone, India's overall HRC/strip imports fell 32.9% year over year to about 235,700 mt, marking the third consecutive monthly drop.

Rising trade barriers are expected to weigh on China's steel exports toward late 2025, coinciding with Vietnam's Hoa Phat's schedule to bring 5.6 million mt/year of fresh HRC capacity online.

India was a net finished steel importer from April 2024 to January 2025, as inflows exceeded outflows by 4.38 million mt compared with the corresponding period the year before.

Vietnamese imports also face hurdles as India began an antidumping investigation on hot-rolled flat product inflows from the country in August 2024.

From April 2024 to January 2025, India imported about 447,400 mt of HRC/strips from Vietnam, down from 572,900 mt the year before.

Concerned about China's growing steel exports, Vietnam, on Feb. 21, said it will impose a temporary antidumping tax on certain steel HRC imports from China while exempting inflows from India. The temporary tariff will run for 120 days, starting March 7.

Buying interest in Vietnam has shifted to wider-width coils from China, which are outside the scope of the antidumping duty, with offers heard upward of $476/mt CFR on Feb. 26.

Indian rerolling grade HRC in Vietnam was offered in the $515-$520/mt CFR range in the week to Feb. 27.

Market sources said the offers are at least $15/mt higher than those of domestic mills and not as competitive as coils from Malaysia and Indonesia.