Metals & Mining Theme, Ferrous, Non-Ferrous

February 07, 2025

LME scrap, rebar future curves in contango

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HIGHLIGHTS

Scrap, spot prices increase on week

LME scrap, rebar futures maintain contango

Volumes traded for scrap futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange, which settle based on assessments by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, fell week over week.

Weekly LME scrap futures trading volumes in the week to Feb. 6 dropped to 88,530 mt from 124,610 mt in the preceding week.

Platts assessed spot prices for physical Turkish imports of premium heavy melting scrap 1/2 (80:20) at $354/mt CFR Feb. 6, up $5/mt week over week from Jan. 30.

Contract month Platts assessed LME scrap forward curve Jan. 30 ($/mt) Platts assessed LME scrap forward curve Feb. 6 ($/mt) Week on week change ($/mt)
February 363 362 -1.00
March 371.5 359 -12.50
April 372.5 364 -8.50

The March-April portion of the forward curve for Turkey scrap futures on the LME sharpened its contango structure during the week, indicating that futures traders expect Turkish scrap prices in the physical market to increase in the medium term.

Rebar futures volumes slip

Rebar futures volumes traded on the LME decreased during the week to Feb. 6, while Platts assessed Turkish exported rebar at $560/mt FOB Feb. 6, stable on the week.

Sentiment remained cautious as Turkish mills increased offers in response to improved order books, but external pressures from a strong US dollar to euro and uncertain demand dynamics in Europe tempered expectations for a sustained upward trend.

Weekly LME rebar futures trading volumes slipped to 3,090 mt in the week to Feb. 6, down from 3,360 mt in the preceding week.

Contract month Platts assessed LME rebar forward curve Jan. 30 ($/mt) Platts assessed LME rebar forward curve Feb. 6 ($/mt) Week on week change ($/mt)
February 574.5 572.75 -1.75
March 580.5 578.5 -2.00
April 584.5 584 -0.50

The February-April portion of the forward curve for Turkey rebar futures on the LME maintained a contango structure, indicating that futures traders expect Turkish rebar prices in the physical market to pursue an upward trend in the near term.