Metals & Mining Theme, Electric Power, Non-Ferrous, Nuclear

February 02, 2025

Canada hits back after hefty US tariffs that risk recession

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HIGHLIGHTS

25% tariff on C$30 billion of US goods Feb. 4

Additional 25% tariff on C$130 billion on Feb. 21

Key supplier of oil, minerals, metals

Canada plans to slap tariffs on a slew of US products in response to President Donald Trump's punishing trade measures that experts fear will force the country into recession.

Canada will impose 25% tariffs on C$155 billion ($107 billion) of American goods, with tariffs on C$30 billion of them going into effect Feb. 4, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Feb. 1. The other C$125 billion in tariffs will go live in 21 days to give businesses time to get ready.

The Canadian countermeasures come after the Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on all Canadian products except for a 10% tariff on energy resources which include oil, coal, uranium and critical minerals. They go live Feb. 4. Meanwhile, Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Mexican imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

Trudeau lamented the US tariffs.

"This is a choice that, yes, will harm Canadians," Trudeau said. "But beyond that it will have real consequences for you, the American people."

"Canada has critical minerals, reliable and affordable energy, stable democratic institutions, shared values and the natural resources you need," the prime minister added.

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum also vowed to retaliate, saying in a social media post that Mexico would implement tariffs and non-tariff measures, without giving more details.

Trudeau said Canada would also consider non-tariff measures "including some relating to critical minerals, energy procurement and other partnerships."

Orange juice, lumber, plastics and appliances were among products Trudeau cited.

Trump's tariffs will make Canadian imports more expensive for US buyers. Canada is a key supplier of US oil, metals, minerals and some manufactured goods like car parts, which trade in tightly woven supply chains.

In 2023, Canada accounted for $46.97 billion in US metals and mineral imports, making it the top US source of the materials, according to US International Trade Commission data.

Danielle Smith, the premier of oil-rich Alberta, said in a social media post she was "disappointed" by the tariffs and that they "strain the important relationship and alliance between our two nations."

She also called on Canada "to fast track and build oil and gas pipelines to the east and west coasts of Canada, construct multiple LNG terminals on each coast, increase internal refining capacity, unleash the development of critical minerals, lower taxes, reduce red tape, tear down interprovincial trade barriers and re-empower provinces to develop our unique economies without constant federal interference and imposition of anti-resource development laws."

Canadian provinces have started to target the US with their own policies beyond those of the federal government's. Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston said the province will limit procurement contracts involving American businesses, double highway tolls on US trucks and remove US alcohol from liquor stores.

Ontario premier Doug Ford said on social media he supported dollar-for-dollar countermeasures and flagged US dependence on Canadian metals and energy.

"Canada now has no choice but to hit back and hit back hard," Ford said in a social media post.

"Canada has so much of what America needs: high-grade nickel and other critical minerals, energy and electricity, uranium, potash, aluminum," he added. "We need to maximize our points of leverage and use them to maximum effect."

British Columbia Premier David Eby called the tariffs a "betrayal" and outlined plans to expedite major resource developments in the province, including mines and energy projects. Eby also highlighted US sourcing of minerals from the province and, like Nova Scotia, BC will end sales of alcohol from Republican states.

"We're accelerating permit approvals on critical mining and low carbon energy projects," Eby said.

The US tariffs come as a shock to Canada as the country has for decades developed close trading relations with the US on the back of free trade agreements.

The economic hit from the import tax -- which makes Canadian goods less competitive in the US -- raised fears that Canada will sink into a recession.

Eby has warned of mounting job losses and a recession as bad or worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

Canada's GDP will shrink 2.6% under a 25% tariff, while also hitting the US economy by making imports more expensive, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce has estimated.

Trudeau has said the government will outline an economic support package to boost the country's hardest-hit industries, while other Canadian leaders have started talking about the need to diversify trade. Trudeau declined to say if he would call Canada's parliament back to address US tariffs.

Canada's countermeasures to US tariffs could also spark a further US response. Trump's executive order includes a retaliation clause, saying the president could ratchet up levies if Canada takes countermeasures.

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