Global copper demand bullish for next 6 months: LME poll

Market participants were bullish on the global demand for copper, followed by aluminum, in the next six months, according to a poll by the London Metal Exchange ahead of the LME Mumbai Forum. Panelists at the forum's metals debate panel Jan. 27 were most optimistic about copper and aluminum demand growth in India.

About 51.7% of polled market participants expect copper prices to rise in the next six months while about 20.7% of the participants polled ahead of the event saw the most upside potential in aluminum among all industrial metals. Zinc ranked third with 12.1% of the votes followed by nickel with 8.6% of the votes and lead and tin with 3.4% of the votes each.

Electrification is expected to drive demand for both industrial metals.

The Indian government is focusing on doubling its installed power generation capacity in the next 10 years or so, Viral Shah, president and head of brokerage, 360 One Wealth said during the panel debate. He said India's copper demand will come from the installation of grid lines, transformers and the last mile of the power grids.

Shah added that copper will also see demand from other public sector capital expenditures like the railways and defense.

Public capital expenditure, a mainstay of India's growth story, fell in 2024 and has yet to see signs of recovery.

India's copper demand is growing and will continue to rise annually by 8%-10%, Anuj Bareja, founder & managing director, Asier Metals Private Ltd said during the panel.

Platts assessed CIF China clean copper concentrate treatment and refining charges at minus $5.30/mt and minus 0.53 cent/lb, respectively, Jan. 28, down by 10 cents/mt and 0.01 cent/lb from Jan. 27.

Darren Rees, executive director, head of metal sales MENA, Marex said he expects demand for copper in India to increase 15%. "There are still big infrastructure uses. We still believe in the story of regeneration, copper cabling, power units," he said.

However, aluminum will also likely see growth due to its potential for being substituted for copper, panelists said.

India will double aluminum consumption in the next 10 years, Piyush Agarwal, head, price risk management, Hindalco said during the panel discussion, adding that India's low per capita aluminum consumption has the potential to grow versus the global average.

As per the Indian government's Technology Vision Document 2035, the country's per capita consumption of aluminum is among the lowest in the world at 2.2 kg, compared with the world average of roughly 8 kg and 22-25 kg in developed nations.

In India, aluminum is consumed mainly by the electrical sector (48%), followed by the automobile and transport sector (15%), construction (13%), consumer durables (7%), machinery and equipment (7%), packaging (4%) and others (6%), according to India's Ministry of Mines.