Metals & Mining Theme, Ferrous, Non-Ferrous

January 10, 2025

LME scrap, rebar volumes rise on week as market activity resumes

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HIGHLIGHTS

Futures contracts maintain contango structure

Spot activity in scrap, rebar increases post holidays

Volumes traded for both scrap and rebar futures on the London Metal Exchange saw an uptick week over week as market participants resumed activity post the new year holidays, leading to an increase in physical trading in the spot market.

LME CFR Turkey scrap futures trading volumes have risen in recent years, with approximately 12.27 million mt traded in 2024, sharply higher from 8.08 million mt in 2023.

Volumes traded, which settle on Platts assessment basis, also increased week over week.

LME scrap futures trading volumes increased to 129,770 mt in the week to Jan. 9, up from 70,110 mt in the week to Jan. 2.

Platts assessed spot prices for physical imports of premium heavy melting scrap 1/2 (80:20) at $343/mt CFR Jan. 9, lower by $3/mt week over week, amid increasing buy-side pressure and a lack of urgency from Turkish mills to secure scrap cargoes.

Contract month Platts-assessed LME scrap forward curve Jan. 2 ($/mt) Platts-assessed LME scrap forward curve Jan. 9 ($/mt) Week-on-week change ($/mt)
January 346.5 342 -4.50
February 347.25 344.5 -2.75
March 350.5 347 -3.50
April 353 350 -3.00

The January-April portion of the forward curve for Turkey scrap futures on the LME maintained its contango structure during the week, indicating that futures traders expected Turkish scrap prices in the physical market to increase in the medium-term.

Rebar futures volumes traded on the LME also increased in the week to Jan. 9, reflecting a bearish sentiment among market participants and growing uncertainty regarding future price movements.

LME rebar futures trading volumes increased to 8,350 mt in the week to Jan. 6, up from 650 mt in the week to Jan. 2.

Contract month Platts-assessed LME rebar forward curve Jan. 2 ($/mt) Platts-assessed LME rebar forward curve Jan. 9 ($/mt) Week-on-week change ($/mt)
January 570.5 561 -9.50
February 575.75 564.5 -11.25
March 581.25 569 -12.25
April 587 578 -9.00

The January-April portion of the forward curve for Turkey rebar futures on the LME maintained a contango structure, indicating that futures traders expect Turkish rebar prices in the physical market to follow an upward trend in the near-term.

Platts assessed Turkish exported rebar at $555/mt FOB on Jan. 9, down by $10/mt week over week.

Editor:

Arushi Jain