Commodities 2025: Turkish rebar market set for growth opportunities in 2025

The Turkish rebar market is facing significant challenges in 2025 due to global oversupply and low demand, but there are glimmers of hope on the horizon. The potential for reconstruction in Syria and the impact of geopolitical developments could create opportunities for recovery, sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights

A Marmara mill source noted factors contributing to difficulties in Turkish rebar market include relatively low import scrap prices and a lack of demand both in export and domestic market, all of which are intensifying competition among market players.

"The volume of supply significantly exceeds demand in the global market. There are no prospects for [the Turkish rebar] price or volume growth until demand improves. There is no demand because of wars, conflicts, and the declining global economy. Interest rates are high, and [market participants] have neither the ability nor the desire to invest," an EU-based trader added.

Rebar prices in Turkey have remained relatively stable, despite falling scrap prices in in the fourth quarter of 2024, which Platts assessed at two-year lows of $335/mt CFR Dec.12. The outright spread between Turkish export rebar and import scrap reached its highest point of the year at $230/mt on Oct.28, up from a low of $173.75/mt on Jan. 4, according to Platts daily Turkish export rebar and Turkish import scrap assessments.

A UK-based trader said that Turkish mills have been able to protect their margins better than other markets, particularly those in India and China, which experienced significant declines in Q4 2024.

In the meantime, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan announced a minimum wage increase of 30% on Jan. 1, 2025, which was not expected to affect steel mills competitiveness in global markets in the near term, as no parallel electricity and natural gas price increases were announced, sources said.

A Marmara mill source also said that they did not expect the announcement of the minimum wage to have a significant effect on rebar pricing in the immediate term.

Platts assessment of Turkish exported rebar decreased $5/mt to $560/mt FOB Jan. 7, down from $565/mt FOB on Dec. 31, one week prior.

 Expected reconstruction activities in Syria may support demand for rebar exports

Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syra -- where the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham toppled the regime in December -- sources have expressed hope that construction activities in Syria will improve as the situation stabilizes, potentially leading to increased demand for rebar sourced from Turkey.

"The Iskenderun region will work directly with that area [Syria], leading to an imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic market," a Marmara mill source said. "This will result in an increase in prices."

Meanwhile, a Turkey-based trader said that potential sales in Syria could benefit Turkey, although the lack of a stable government complicates predictions. The level of international support for Syria remains uncertain, and questions about the functionality of customs processes persist.

"If demand were to arise from Syria, it will be gradual, with no immediate significant market changes," the trader added.

In terms of exports, Syria was Turkey's third-largest rebar export market in October, with shipments totaling 18,000mt — an eightfold increase year over year, according to the latest TUIK data.

Overall, Turkey's steel exports surged by 29.1% year over year, reaching 12.1 million mt from January to November 2024, TCUD data showed.

Yemen emerged as Turkey's top rebar export market during this period, despite a 10% decline year over year, while Romania received 217,000 mt, doubling its imports compared to the previous year.

However, shipments to Israel, traditionally a major destination for Turkish rebar, plummeted in the second half of 2024 due to Turkey's export ban, with January-November shipments falling to 78,200 mt — an 88.4% decrease year over year. In contrast, exports to Palestine reached 149,000 mt, a notable increase from zero a year ago.

Looking ahead, a Marmara mill source said, "I think 2025 will be more challenging compared to 2024, but I believe it will be a good year."

Turkey-US relations

Turkey-based mills were not anticipating another surge in demand until US President-elect Donald Trump's incumbent second term on Jan. 20, sources said. His second term has been cited as a determining factor by market participants. Trump's threats of tariffs against Canadian, Chinese and Mexican steel imports have sparked fears of global oversupply, as exporters in those nations could likely seek alternative buyers. This situation has already encouraged Turkish steel mills to keep rebar inventories low until the extent of Trump's protectionist policies becomes clearer.

A South American distributor source said, "The general expectation among steelmakers was that tariffs would primarily serve as a negotiation tactic, leading many to maintain their market prices at current levels while awaiting final decisions expected in January."

Another trader expressed a more cautious outlook: "I don't see any fundamental reasons for improvement in the situation. But we hope that the war in Ukraine will end and that things will get better for everyone."

In addition, the measures expected to be imposed on China by the incoming Trump administration could have a positive effect on Turkish exports, Cetin Tecdelioglu, chairman of the Istanbul Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals Exporters' Association, said Jan. 6.

China's export volumes in January-November 2024 reached 101.15 million mt, which were up 22.6% year over year. It is the first time China has breached the 100 million mt level since 2016, which also contributed to the downward pressure on global finished steel prices throughout the year.

S&P Global Commodity Insights projects Chinese finished steel exports in 2025 to fall to around 97 million mt, depending on the impact of global antidumping measures on Chinese material and the possibility of US tariffs.

Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.