US ammonia exports decline 8.4% on year in 2024, capacity to rise in 2025

Ammonia exports from the US decreased 8.4% on the year in 2024, totaling 1.035 million mt, according to the latest data from the Global Trade Analytics Suite from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The full-year total marked a decline from the record-high 2023 total of 1.131 million mt exported.

Morocco remained the top export market for US ammonia shipments in 2024, purchasing 359,553 mt, followed by Norway with 272,099 mt and the UK with 83,696 mt, the data showed.

Despite the 8.4% on-year decline, export volumes from the US have been consistently growing in the last ten years amid expanding nitrogen capacity fueled by competitive prices for natural gas -- a vital feedstock for ammonia production. For comparison, the US exported 135,184 mt of ammonia in 2014.

US export capacity is expected to increase further in 2025 with the expected startups of Gulf Coast Ammonia in the second quarter and Beaumont Clean Ammonia later this year. The combined output of both Texas plants exceeds 2.3 million mt/year of ammonia, the foundational ingredient for all mineral nitrogen fertilizers and a chemical with industrial uses.

Trinidad and Tobago and Canada have remained the main suppliers to the US, Canada surpassed Trinidad and Tobago as the top exporter to the US in 2023 and 2024.

The market has been watching for impacts on Canadian exports to the US since the Donald Trump administration proposed, and subsequently paused, a plan to impose a 25% tariff on the country -- a decision that faced criticism from fertilizer associations on both sides of the border.

Meanwhile, the largest supplier of ammonia in the Americas, Trinidad and Tobago has recently faced natural gas supply hiccups that has hindered output and exports.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, last assessed the US Gulf Coast ammonia price at $450/mt FOB on Feb. 6.