Turkey clinker exports to remain strong in 2025 as domestic growth faces economic headwinds

Turkey's domestic cement market experienced a robust growth of 11% on the year in the first ten months of 2024, with total consumption for the whole year projected to reach 75 million mt, up from 68 million mt in 2023. However, the export market remained relatively flat, with total exports of cement and clinker at 19.5 million mt, marking a slight decline of up to 2% on the year, Abdulhamit Akçay, vice chairman of Turkish Cement, told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"We saw a significant increase in clinker exports in 2024 by nearly 40% [on the year] and we expect the same growth in 2025. Cement-wise, there will be growth, but not as strong as clinker," Akçay said.

Looking ahead to 2025, Akçay said the economic landscape in Turkey appeared challenging due to high interest rates and stringent monetary policies. With the central bank's cautious approach to rate cuts, it is expected that domestic consumption could remain flat or decrease by up to 5% compared with 2024. However, despite these challenges, exports are expected to rise by 10% on the year, driven by a significant increase in clinker exports, particularly to Europe, where demand is anticipated to grow. The US market also presents opportunities for growth, with potential increases in cement exports.

"2025 will be a tough year again because of stringent economic policies and monetary tightening," Akçay said. "Even if interest rates decrease, there will be some limitation in the financial landscape. So, the strongest scenario sees domestic consumption at either flat or 5% lower [on the year] than 2024."

Turkey's shift towards green cement is also expected to continue during 2025, with manufacturers increasingly adopting blended cement to comply with government regulations. This transition is expected to gradually boost sales of blended cement in the domestic market with blended cement "selling more and more", Akçay said.

Akçay also noted that the US market remained optimistic about Turkish cement imports, despite uncertainties surrounding potential tariffs under the Trump administration as the quality and consistency of Turkish cement, coupled with short transit times, continue to make Turkey a preferred supplier.

"Our US customers are very optimistic about the new government and expect a significant growth in construction activity," he said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the first Platts CEMDEX Turkey price, reflecting Ordinary Portland Cement CEM I 42.5R (bulk), at $51/mt FOB on Jan. 9.

S&P Global Commodity Insights launched a pioneering suite of cement and cement clinker price assessments Jan. 9. The assessments incorporate market data to reflect the value of cement, clinker, and associated freight in the spot market, taking into account bids, offers, trades, and other indicators -- providing insights into pricing at key cement hubs.

Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.