S&P Global Offerings
Featured Topics
Featured Products
Events
S&P Global Offerings
Featured Topics
Featured Products
Events
S&P Global Offerings
Featured Topics
Featured Products
Events
S&P Global Offerings
Featured Topics
Featured Products
Events
Solutions
Capabilities
Delivery Platforms
News & Research
Our Methodology
Methodology & Participation
Reference Tools
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.
Featured Events
S&P Global
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.
S&P Global Offerings
S&P Global
Research & Insights
S&P Global
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.
About Commodity Insights
Solutions
Capabilities
Delivery Platforms
News & Research
Our Methodology
Methodology & Participation
Reference Tools
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.
Featured Events
S&P Global
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.
S&P Global Offerings
S&P Global
Research & Insights
S&P Global
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.
About Commodity Insights
02 Dec 2023 | 12:37 UTC
Highlights
Target to reach at least 11 TW by 2030
Double efficiency gains to over 4%/yr
Hydrogen standards declaration
World leaders at the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai pledged Dec. 2 to triple global renewable generation capacity by 2030 to at least 11 TW installed.
Some 116 countries have signed the Global Renewable Pledge and Energy Efficiency Pledge, which agree to triple renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11 TW and double global energy efficiency improvement rates from around 2%/year now to more than 4%/year by 2030.
The targets had been flagged by the COP28 president in the run-up to this climate summit, but reaching agreement is a major milestone for the talks this year.
The initiatives were launched Dec. 2 under the Global Decarbonization Accelerator (GDA) program, designed to accelerate the energy transition and reduce global emissions.
The renewables target will require an unprecedented acceleration in deployment from today's 2.3 TW total installed capacity for wind and solar.
According to analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, some 4.6 TW of solar and wind capacity are forecast to be added between now and 2030, at a cost of $4.7 trillion.
"The Commodity Insights scenarios indicate that this is an ambitious target. Despite the significant increase in renewable deployment by 2030, installed capacity only doubles in our base case," said Anna Mosby, Head of Environmental Policy Analytics at S&P Global.
And while energy efficiency improvement rates are expected to rise in all scenarios by 2030, a doubling is also seen as beyond realistic expectation.
"In the base case Inflections scenario, energy intensity improvement rates only increase by 28% from 2022 levels," S&P Global analysts said in a recent note. "The net zero cases approach the stated COP28 target but still only reach a 79% and 90% improvement over 2022 levels by 2030," they said.
According to the International Energy Agency, tripling renewables by 2030 is an "ambitious yet achievable goal."
Achieving this would require "stronger policy actions by governments to ensure resilient technology supply chains, secure and cost-effective system integration of solar PV and wind, and renewables deployment in many more emerging and developing economies," IEA said in a recent report.
COP28's GDA program also includes the UAE Hydrogen Declaration of Intent, under which 27 countries have agreed to endorse a global certification hydrogen standard and to recognize existing hydrogen certification schemes, to help unlock global trade in low-carbon hydrogen.
Clean hydrogen definitions have proved difficult to pin down, and a set of global standards remains elusive.
However, several countries and regions have already established rules and definitions for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen, and a number of private initiatives are also pushing their own standards for global use.
The EU finalized green hydrogen definitions earlier in 2023, requiring strict temporal and geographical matching of renewable generation and associated hydrogen production.
And the US is now charting a similar course to the EU, grappling with issues of so-called "additionality," which requires green hydrogen electrolysis to be powered by new renewables capacity so as not to cannibalize green power grids.
Ahead of the conference, COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber called for a doubling of global hydrogen production capacity to 180 million mt/year by 2030.
Current conventional annual hydrogen production is around 90 million mt/year, and reaching such a target with low-carbon and renewable hydrogen would be a big ask.
Power source | 2010 | 2022 | 2030 (SP) | 2030 (AP) |
Solar | 32 | 1290 | 5405 | 6390 |
Wind | 342 | 2125 | 5229 | 6208 |
Nuclear | 2756 | 2682 | 3351 | 3496 |
Gas | 4847 | 6500 | 6613 | 6055 |
Coal | 8669 | 10428 | 8337 | 6998 |
Source: IEA WEO 2023 (SP=Stated Policies. AP=Announced Pledges)