COP28: India doubles down on right to increase climate emissions

India has committed itself to greater coal-fired generation use ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai and is set to voice developing nations' demands for a greater share of the carbon emissions budget at the Nov. 30-Dec. 12 summit.

India is the world's third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide after China and the US, with a booming economy driving electricity demand up 9.6% in fiscal year 2023.

"There will be pressure again on those countries who use coal," RK Singh, minister of power and new and renewable energy, said Nov. 6. "Our point of view is that we are not going to compromise with the availability of power for growth."

Public sector power companies are constructing about 27 GW of thermal plants -- almost all coal -- but this is insufficient, according to Singh. The country needs "at least 80 GW" of new capacity to meet future demand, he said.

India generated 149.66 TWh of electricity in September, of which 108.70 TWh, or 73%, was coal-fired, data from Central Electricity Authority showed. The coal-fired figure was up 17% year on year.

S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts the share of coal-fired generation in India's power mix will rise to 77% by 2025 before falling to 71% in 2030 and 52% by 2050.

"India cannot survive without coal as it has no other options," said Rashika Gupta, research and analysis director at S&P Global. "Nuclear and hydro take a decade to build, gas is not available, and LNG is very expensive. India's forte has always been coal -- it knows how to operate it, and there is indigenous capacity to build it."

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the price of India West 5,500 NAR physical thermal coal at $111.30/mt Nov. 28. Coal stockpiles at Indian power plants stood at 25.70 million mt Nov. 26, enough for nine days of coal burn.

Gas growth

Though a relatively small segment of overall generation, India's use of natural gas is also growing strongly.

In third quarter 2023, India's gas demand across all sectors increased 19% year over year to 6,524 MMcf/d, reflecting strong demand from the fertilizer, power and refining sectors. In August, India registered its higher-ever gas consumption of 6,800 MMcf/d.

"The gas demand is driven by new gas reforms, increased domestic gas production, prolonged heat waves and relatively low spot LNG prices," S&P Global said in its November India gas market briefing.

A significant trend in India has been the increase in gas allocation for prioritized sectors such as city gas distribution, fertilizers and power, the report said.

Renewables growth

India is also one of the fastest growing renewable power markets, with capacity additions of around 15 GW to 20 GW annually.

Renewable capacity additions are expected to accelerate further, overtaking coal capacity additions in the next decade, Gupta said.

"2035 is the year where I see some transition happening," Gupta said. "But there would still be some coal additions that would happen year on year."

For India's growing carbon credits industry, meanwhile, COP28's global stocktake is likely to translate into fresh impetus for India's carbon project developers.

"NDCs are falling short of emission reductions needed for meeting net-zero targets by midcentury, so business participation is more necessary, and the carbon market is the only viable avenue to get businesses engaged," said Samrat Sengupta, vice president, new business and market strategy, at consultancy EKI.

The issuance of carbon credits from Indian projects spanning 2010 to October 2023 totaled 309 million, or 17% of the global market, S&P Global analyst Abhijeet Thakkar said. Over 94% of these credits derived from renewable energy projects.

Balancing inequalities

COP28 negotiations are expected to reflect geopolitical divisions between developed and developing nations, S&P Global said in a November 2023 report.

"Developing countries, led by China and India, have brought increasing attention to the idea of the 'responsibility' developed parties have towards other parties as the largest emitters on a cumulative basis -- a topic that traditionally serves as a deal-breaker when raised to developed parties with concerns over opening themselves up to liability," the report said.

India had backed language on a "phasedown" of fossil fuels in the official cover text of the COP27 meeting in Egypt last year, having been instrumental in removing "phaseout" language at the previous COP in Glasgow in 2021.

Now India is said to be pushing for developed nations to commit to being "carbon negative" by 2050, moving beyond their current net-zero pledges.

In a reference scenario, S&P Global forecasts India's carbon emissions rising from 2.48 billion mt/year in 2023 to 2.9 billion mt/year in 2030, and further to 3.37 billion mt/year in 2045.

India has pledged to cut its emissions intensity by 45% by 2030 from 2005 levels, reaching net-zero emissions by 2070 under its Nationally Determined Contributions.