California falling behind reaching clean energy goals as renewables fill queue

The Western US has broadly come into alignment to increase renewable capacity with most states setting aggressive clean energy goals, but California is falling behind on reaching its targets, panelists said Nov. 17 during the California Energy Forum.

The federal administration looks to the Western states to lead the way when it comes to clean energy advancements and implementation, said Amisha Rai, managing director at Advanced Energy Economy, a national trade association.

California Senate Bill 100, which established the state's policy for 100% clean energy by 2045 and expanded the renewable portfolio standard to 60% renewables by 2030, calls for 145 GW of new clean energy.

"We're falling behind," said V. John White, executive director of the Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies. "We're relying on the dirtiest fuels we have available to keep the lights on. We have a lot of renewable projects in the queue that could be developed to replace the natural gas and diesel."

The California Independent System Operator grid generation queue has 1.1 GW of renewables with online dates in 2021, about 725 MW of which have executed interconnection agreements. The number of renewables in the queue jumps to 4.38 GW for 2022, 20.88 GW for 2023 and 57.78 GW for 2024.

Renewable growth

In order to catch up, the state needs to add 6 GW of wind, solar and storage every year between now and 2045, said Julia Zuckerman, head of external affairs at Clearway Energy, a developer and long-term owners/operator. So far, the state has been adding about a quarter of what is needed annually.

"We can get there from here," Zuckerman said. "We need a lot of ambition and dedication to get that steel in the ground."

Overall, the state has made incredible progress when it comes to renewables, said Dan Jacobson, senior advisor with Environment California, an environmental lobby organization.

"You can't go from zero to 100% without going through 30%, 40% and 50%," Jacobson said. "The past 10 years have been amazing in what we've been able to accomplish across the state. ... We need so much so quickly and we shouldn't be afraid of overbuilding right now because overbuilding will get us just to where we need to be in the future. What costs a lot now will cost a low more in the future."

Battery storage additions

"It's a game changer if we can increase the duration of battery storage," Assemblyman Chris Holden, Democrat-Pasadena, said about expanding storage's capabilities from hours to days. "Those are the kinds of developments that will help us ... meet our goals and get us to where we need to be."

CAISO had 250 MW of battery storage during summer 2020, but is expected to surpass 3 GW by the end of 2021, said Stacey Crowley, CAISO vice president of external affairs.

"We are seeing the battery storage resources that have come on are there when we need them the most and that is because of the market designs put in place," Crowley said. "We desperately need more transmission to accelerate those technology advances."

The focus is now on investments to build out infrastructure, said Rajinder Sahota, deputy executive officer of climate change & research with the California Air Resources Board.

"The challenges are going to be coming on the implementation side," Sahota said about achieving 100% clean energy.

Solar plus storage

"Going forward, I think you'll see most, if not all, solar projects matched with storage," Zuckerman said about developers receiving better tax credits versus separating the projects. "Storage is the key to capturing the solar and shifting it to late in the day where the peak has now moved."

Storage is needed because California can no longer rely on access to regional generation like it did in the past, because climate change is affecting everyone, Sahota said. The natural gas fleet will be around for a while because "the other technologies are just not really ready yet," she said.

Other technologies panelists identified as promising include hydrogen, offshore wind, microgrids, geothermal and energy efficiency.

"We need a balanced portfolio both in technology and geography," White said. "We need seasonal and multi-day storage, which is where hydrogen comes in. This is where we need to have our eyes wide open on the planning side."