Global CO2 emissions estimated to rise to record highs in 2023

Global carbon dioxide emissions are poised to rise to an all-time high this year, up around 1% from 2022, climate research institute CICERO said Oct. 19.

"To reach pathways consistent with the goals in the Paris Agreement, global CO2 emissions should be falling by around 5% this year," said senior researcher Glen Peters at Norway-based CICERO. But current projections suggest that CO2 emissions will increase by between 0.5-1.5%, he added.

This comes as global leaders are under pressure to accelerate their climate action plans and take concrete steps to reduce global emissions at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai, taking place from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12.

Emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes are estimated to be as high as 37.2/GigatonCO2e in 2023, according to provisional data from the Global Carbon Budget project.

The Global Carbon Budget brings together a number of scientific, climate and research institutes including CICERO to help provide credible, scientific information to researchers, policymakers and civil society.

Energy use

The main sources for emissions were energy consumption (electricity and heating), transport (cars, planes), manufacturing, construction and food production.

Emissions from the oil sector will see the sharpest year-on-year rise (2.2%), followed by the cement and coal industry, while those from gas are likely to be stable.

Emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes grew 0.9% to a new record high of 36.8/GigatonCO2e in 2022, according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency. This compares to 2021 when CO2 emissions surged by more than 6% as many economies were finally emerging out of COVID-19.

Increased usage of clean energy sources such as renewables, electric vehicles and heat pumps helped prevent a further increase in emissions, according to many climate scientists and analysts.

But many countries have seen a rise in the trend of gas-to-coal switching as many economies are still reeling from energy price shocks, rising inflation and disruptions to traditional fuel trade flows.

COP28 focus

Many countries are hoping COP28 will result in an ambitious but well managed phaseout of coal and crude oil.

But key oil producers and consumers fear this approach will harm their economies, instead calling for the elimination of emissions from the sector rather than phasing out the consumption of fossil fuels.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has repeatedly said phasing out of fossil fuels was urgently needed for the world to meet its Paris Agreement commitments, to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Based on current national commitments, the gap to emissions consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 C in 2030 was estimated to be between 20.3 billion mtCO2e and 23.9 billion mtCO2e, it said in a recent report.

In a recent interview, COP28 Director-General Majid al-Suwaidi told S&P Global Commodity Insights that fast-tracking the pace of the energy transition is a key objective at the global climate summit.

"We are laser-focused on achieving the 1.5 C target, as well as on how we address the mitigation, emissions and finance gaps, and make good on promises that were made as part of the Paris Agreement," Suwaidi told S&P Global. "That is why we have ambitious targets when it comes to tripling renewable capacity, doubling hydrogen capacity and doubling energy efficiency. We need to decarbonize the energy system we have today, while we build up the energy system of the future."