Vietnam approves National Climate Change Strategy to 2050 to meet net-zero pledge

Vietnam's government has issued the country's National Climate Change Strategy to 2050, with Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh formally approving the document on July 26.

Under the strategy, posted on the website of the environment ministry the following day, Vietnam aims to lower its greenhouse gas emissions by 43.5% by 2030 compared to its business-as-usual scenario, peak carbon emissions in 2035 and achieve net zero by 2050.

Of the total emissions cuts by 2030:

• energy sector emissions will be reduced by 32.6% by 2030, and capped at 457 million mtCO2e
• agriculture sector emissions cut by 43%, and capped at 64 million mtCO2e
• forestry sector and land use emissions cut by 70%, increase carbon sequestration by 20%, with total emissions and removals reaching at least negative 95 million mtCO2e
• waste sector emissions cut by 60.7%, and capped at 18 million mtCO2e
• industrial process emissions cut by 38.3%, and capped at 86 million mtCO2e

Under the 2030 target, entities with annual greenhouse gas emissions of 2,000 mtCO2e or more are required to cut emissions. By 2030, the country also aims to reduce methane emissions, compared to 2020 levels.

By 2050 Vietnam expects:

• energy sector emissions will be reduced by 91.6%, and capped at 101 million mtCO2e
• agriculture sector emissions will be cut by 63.1%, and capped at 56 million mtCO2e
• forestry sector and land use emissions cut by 90%, increase carbon sequestration by 30%, with total emissions and removals reaching at least negative 185 million mtCO2e
• waste sector emissions cut by 90.7%, and capped at 8 million mtCO2e
• industrial process emissions cut by 84.8%, and capped at 20 million mtCO2e

By 2050, entities with annual greenhouse gas emissions of 200 mtCO2e or more will be required to cut emissions.

The government said in the strategy it will not develop new coal-fired power plants after 2030 and will gradually reduce its coal fleet after 2035.

On July 25, Deputy Prime Minister Thanh had also approved a plan to implement the country's net-zero target announced at COP26. It included the use of green energy in the transport sector, with a target to stop sales of traditional gasoline and sell only gasohol E5, a blend of 95% of 92RON gasoline and 5% of ethanol, at retail stations by 2030. Currently, Vietnam still allows consumption of 95RON gasoline, besides E5.

In the energy sector, Vietnam is in the process of considering its power development plan over 2021-2030 with a vision to 2045, which will reduce coal power capacity and raise renewable and LNG-based generation capacity.

Investors have quick to adapt to the government's new policies to push the energy transition with recent announcements of several hydrogen projects.

World Bank report

On July 1, the World Bank said in its development report that Vietnam's 100 million people are among the most vulnerable in the world to climate impacts, facing hazards along a 3,260-km long coastline and in the Mekong Delta that's home to 18 million people.

It said some provinces could see over 70% of their land inundated within 80 years, and Vietnam already lost about $10 billion in 2020, or 3.2% of its GDP, to climate impacts. "Models suggest that the costs to the economy generated by climate change could total as much as $523 billion by 2050," the report said

Vietnam's contribution to global GHG emissions is relatively small at 0.8%, and on per capita terms Vietnam's emissions are less than half of OECD per capita emissions, but rapid economic growth has led to a quadrupling of per capita GHG emissions from 0.79 mtCO2e in 2000 to 3.81 mtCO2e in 2018, and emissions are accelerating at one of fastest rates in the world.

"Without inclusive adaptation responses, climate change impacts could drive an additional 400,000 to 1 million people into extreme poverty by 2030," the World Bank said.