Australia tables Climate Bill to enshrine 43% emissions cut commitment by 2030

The Australian government introduced a Climate Change Bill to Parliament July 27 seeking to enshrine in law a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said.

The Climate Change (Consequential Amendments) Bill 2022 would add carbon abatement targets to the objectives of a range of government agencies and schemes, he said.

"The Bill makes it clear that 43% is our minimum commitment – and does not prevent our collective efforts delivering even stronger reductions over the coming decade," Bowen said.

It set out "ambitious but realistic targets" supported by Australia's states and territories, business, industry, unions, environmental and community groups, he said.

The Bill tasks the independent Climate Change Authority to provide advice on Australia's progress against its main targets, and to advise on new targets under the Paris Agreement to include a 2035 target.

It requires the Minister for Climate Change to report annually to Parliament on progress in meeting the targets.

It also embeds the nation's targets in the objectives and functions of government agencies including Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), Infrastructure Australia and the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF).

"The targets are to be interpreted consistently with both the Paris Agreement and Australia's formal Nationally Determined Contribution," a government statement said.

Australia's new Labor government wrote to the UNFCCC June 16, raising its emissions reduction target to 43% from 26%-28% earlier.

In 2021 the previous Liberal administration had committed to net-zero climate emissions by 2050.

While the Labor-majority Lower House was likely to pass the Bill, it may meet resistance in the Upper House, climate experts said.

"The Greens are calling for emissions cuts of 75% by 2030 and want the 43% target to be a floor, not a ceiling," said Madeline Taylor, senior lecturer at Macquarie Law School, Sydney. "They also want to stop new coal and gas projects."

While an outright ban on new thermal plant approvals was a distant prospect, insertion of a "climate trigger" clause, requiring an assessment of climate impacts ahead of project approval, was considered possible by John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, University of Queensland.

"The trigger would mean new coal and gas projects could be rejected on the grounds of potential damage to the climate, without Labor having to commit to such a ban," he said in an article on The Conversation website.

Under a reference case, Platts Analytics' Global Integrated Energy Model forecasts Australian emissions from combustion of energy products to rise from 384 million mt CO2 this year to a peak of 394 million mt in 2028, dipping to 390 million mt in 2030.

Under a Two Degrees Outlook, the GIEM show Australian emissions peaking next year at 388 million mt, then declining to 262 million mt in 2030.