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17 Jul 2023 | 12:14 UTC
By Eklavya Gupte and Rosemary Griffin
Highlights
Reconstruction to account for over 40% of conflict-related emissions
Global military emissions currently not included in international reporting
Russia's war on Ukraine having major impact on global climate
Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia along with wildfires caused by higher temperatures will lead to a further surge in greenhouse gas emissions in the conflict zone, Lennard de Klerk, an expert on emissions accounting told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine launched in February 2022, has already had a substantial impact on global climate, leading to a surge in carbon emissions, and causing significant environmental damage. These have been linked to active fighting, transportation, wildfires, displacement of people, and the estimated costs of rebuilding Ukraine when the war is over.
In a recent report, the Initiative on GHG accounting of war estimated that greenhouse gas emissions in the first year of the war (Feb. 24, 2022-Feb. 23, 2023) were as high as 120 million mtCO2e.
"This is equivalent to the total greenhouse gas emissions produced over the same period in a country like Belgium," the report said. De Klerk is the lead author of this report.
The bulk of military emissions were attributed to fuel consumption by Russian troops, followed by fuel demand from Ukrainian soldiers. Use of ammunition, military equipment, construction of fortifications were also key emitters in the war.
"I think this war also put the focus on military emissions and the accounting of military emissions in a general sense. So not only during war, but also in peace time," de Klerk said, adding that the majority of military emissions occur during peacetime.
A sizeable amount of war-related emissions was expected to come from reconstruction projects after the war. The Initiative on GHG accounting of war has estimated that future emissions related to reconstruction would account for over 40% of current total estimates.
Reconstruction would require a lot of cement and steel. Options include using low-carbon cement and recycling steel from infrastructure that has been destroyed, and using more sustainable building materials, such as wood.
Western donors as well as Ukrainian officials and companies have called for cleaner fuels to be used for reconstruction projects, as well as commodities production, and potentially power exports to Europe.
"What I get back from Ukraine is that renewable energy is getting a big boost, not so much because of environmental concerns, but for broader security reasons," de Klerk said.
Some other factors that have added to emissions linked to the conflict include the attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipeline network and the impact of airspace bans on civil aviation that require detours and additional fuel usage.
Concerns around the climate impact of the conflict in Ukraine come amid wider calls for military emissions to be calculated and included in international reporting.
Military organizations are currently not required to report climate emissions under international treaties, despite them operating highly carbon-intensive equipment and being large consumers of oil products.
On June 13, NATO unveiled a guide to help calculate greenhouse gas emissions from its various civilian and military structures.
In the case of Russia and Ukraine, it was unclear how emissions from occupied territories will be recorded. Russia already includes emissions from Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, in its own reporting. Ukraine opposes this.
Beyond Russia and Ukraine, major emissions-triggering conflicts in recent decades include the US-led invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan as well as Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.
A recent report published by the Scientists for Global Responsibility and the Conflict and Environment Observatory estimated the total military carbon footprint at 5.5% of global emissions. Other estimates have been lower.
The report, titled Estimating the Military's Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions, said operational greenhouse gas emissions of the military sector were about 500 million mtCO2e/year, or 1% of global greenhouse emissions.
"If the global military sector were a nation, it would have the fourth largest carbon footprint in world -- greater than the whole of Russia," it said.
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