Japanese Q2 2025 aluminum premium drops 20% QOQ to $182/mt CIF Japan

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the second-quarter premium for imported primary aluminum at $182/mt plus London Metal Exchange cash, CIF main Japanese ports, on March 27, down around 20% from $228/mt in Q1 2025.

Offers heard during negotiations ranged between $220-$260/mt CIF Japan, higher than the concluded level at $182/mt, amid initial uncertainties surrounding US tariffs on aluminum.

Buyer expectations for Q2 MJP negotiations were previously reported below $180/mt, according to market participants.

On the supply side, market participants said the US tariffs on aluminum might lead to the rerouting of units away from the US, which in turn could lead to an oversupply situation elsewhere. Major aluminum producers Rio Tinto and Alcoa said earlier this week they would shift their Canadian shipments away from the US into other markets if tariffs on Canada became too burdensome.

The Q1 premium of $228/mt reflected an 11.22% rise from Q4 2021 and represented the highest quarterly premium since 2021 due to supply-side disruptions.

On March 27, Platts assessed the CIF main Asian ports (MAP) spot P1020 aluminum premium at $173/mt plus London Metal Exchange cash, unchanged day over day and down $32/mt from the start of 2025.

Market participants' near-term outlook for Asia remained mixed. Some expect an uptick in buying interest in Asia amid the new quarter and the new financial year in Japan, in addition to LME aluminum futures returning to a contango. Others said that they were uncertain if premiums would remain supported amid the expected outflow of supply from the US into other markets alongside weak demand in Asia.

Sentiments in Japan and the rest of Asia dampened as the US announced 25% tariffs on automotive imports effective April 2, which could further weaken demand for aluminum in the Asian market.

Port stocks at main Japanese ports at the end of February stood at 313,400 mt, down 3.48% month over month and down 5.29% year over year.

The Platts CIF Japan spot premium for 99.7% P1020/P1020A aluminum ingot was assessed at $165/mt plus London Metal Exchange cash, CIF Japan on March 27, up $10/mt day over day.

Platts specifications are for all quarterly settlements on a CIF main Japanese port basis, negotiated before the quarter between two unaffiliated counterparties, for P1020/P1020A 99.7% primary aluminum ingot, with payment in cash against documents, for volumes of 500 mt/month or more under annual frame contracts.