Analysts, industry see ongoing support for nuclear energy in second Trump term

Industry officials and analysts see continued strong support for nuclear energy and domestic uranium production from the incoming administration of Donald Trump, although details on spending levels and the administrative approach to be followed remain uncertain.

The new administration is likely to carefully review many of the incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act, which focused on clean energy tax credits, several officials said.

Some believe the administration will cut credits for electric vehicles and renewable energy first and may leave nuclear incentives largely unchanged.

"We do not expect that any of these changes impact either nuclear energy or nuclear fuel funding," analysts at Citi Research said Nov. 19 in a note to clients focusing on uranium and nuclear power.

But there remain questions about whether future budgets will include continuing support for nuclear projects.

"I would say we are in a state of uncertainty" about the future government role in the nuclear power industry, said Joyce Connery, a former National Security Council official overseeing civilian nuclear power under President Barack Obama.

She noted during a panel discussion at the American Nuclear Society winter conference Nov. 18 that some in the industry were pleased by Trump's choice of Chris Wright as energy secretary a day earlier. Although he is a longtime natural gas executive, Wright sits on the board of directors of startup Oklo, which is developing an advanced reactor design.

"He is on the board of Oklo; he has said positive things about nuclear power. That's positive" for the industry, Connery said.

"The question is, is he going to honor some of the commitments made by the Biden administration and the money that's already been kind of pledged to do some of these projects, or are they going to back away from a lot of government backing," she said. Connery, who now chairs the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board, said her comments were made in a personal capacity and not on behalf of the DNFSB.

The first Trump administration began, and the Biden administration has continued to support, advanced reactor demonstration projects in which billions have been pledged to deploy reactors at multiple sites. Recently, the Biden administration launched a program to support one or more small modular reactors as well as provide large purchases of enriched uranium to spur domestic capacity.

Bipartisan congressional support for nuclear energy is going to remain strong, despite some changes in the leadership of key authorizing committees in both the Senate and the House, said Brad Williams, senior policy adviser for the Idaho National Laboratory and a former DOE nuclear energy official. "Generally speaking, almost everyone on the Hill supports nuclear ... The funding, that will be the challenge," Williams said during the ANS panel discussion.

It is likely budget levels for the rest of the fiscal year will continue at current levels, which will not be bad for nuclear energy, he said. There is uncertainty, Williams said, about the future of offices within DOE such as the recently established Office of Infrastructure and the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, which each have oversight of some nuclear energy deployment programs receiving DOE support.

It is possible that money could be "shuffled" such that nuclear energy might even benefit, he said. "Things might shift within the various programs," Williams said.

Tax credits included in the IRA are likely to be reviewed on a case by case basis as the Trump administration considers ways to extend tax cuts that expire in 2025, several analysts said. Congressional support for the nuclear-focused production tax credits and investment tax credits likely mean that even if the administration seeks to curb them, Congress could decline to do so, said Adam Stein, director of nuclear energy and innovation at the Breakthrough Institute, in an interview Nov. 20.

Future funding for nuclear power demonstration projects may be in competition with other spending priorities at a time when new funding is unlikely, triggering a bit of a battle to repurpose unused funding available in DOE loan guarantee and civilian nuclear credit programs, Stein said.

Trump's support for fossil fuels should not be confused with a disdain for nuclear energy, said Scott Melbye, president of the Uranium Producers of America. Trump gets "an adrenaline rush" from chanting "drill baby drill," but his views on energy are more nuanced than that, he added during an appearance just before the election at a Nuclear Energy Institute uranium conference in Kansas City.

Two of Trump's biggest supporters, Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, carry a lot of weight with the president-elect and have spent time already describing the value of nuclear energy to Trump, said Melbye, who also serves as an executive of Uranium Energy Corp.

"I wouldn't have any concerns that the Trump administration isn't going to be incredibly pro-nuclear," he said.

Domestic uranium support seen

Although a Trump administration may push for, and obtain, a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, the US ban on enriched uranium imports is likely to stay in place, the Citi analysts wrote. However, "it is likely and consistent with our longstanding view that the waiver process will be substantially eased," they noted.

The current waiver process — allowed through the end of 2027, when a full ban on such imports kicks in — has produced mixed results. Centrus Energy, one of the biggest importers of Russian enriched uranium, which is resells to utilities, received a waiver from the Department of Energy for material coming into the US in 2024 and 2025, but a decision on shipments in 2026 and 2027 was deferred. Constellation Energy, the largest US nuclear plant operator, also received a waiver for 2024 and 2025, industry sources have said, but another utility was denied one. Constellation has declined to confirm its receipt of a waiver.

Russia Nov. 15 said it would limit enriched uranium exports immediately, although temporarily, in retaliation for the US action.

There is potential for additional support for US uranium mining under Trump, the Citi analysts said. The administration could classify uranium as a critical mineral, which would streamline permitting of uranium recovery facilities, they said.

Another impact of the Trump election could be a sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, many analysts have said.

This could spill over into the nuclear energy arena by increasing the cost to import Chinese enriched uranium, the Citi Research analysts said. Constellation Energy has said it has been purchasing Chinese enrichment services in recent years to ensure it has nuclear fuel to support reactor operations.

Current tariffs are 7.5% on such imports, but could be "significantly higher under Trump," Citi said.

NRC regulation streamlining likely to continue

The focus on regulatory streamlining to assist nuclear plants getting licensed is an area several people said is likely to continue mostly unchanged under a Republican administration and Congress.

There has been bipartisan support for legislation in recent years requiring the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to adopt licensing frameworks better suited for advanced and small reactors, boost regulatory certainty and lower fees.

The most likely path is for NRC to continue the actions it has engaged in during the past five to 10 years to make regulation more efficient and effective, said Patrick White, research director for the Nuclear Innovation Alliance, during the panel at the ANS winter conference. "I think there's broad alignment that the NRC is important as an independent regulator, but there are questions about how it can do its job more effectively," he said.

Congress will likely wait to see how NRC responds to the mandates in the ADVANCE Act, calling for more effective licensing, and then respond with additional legislation if it is seen as needed, Stein said.