EDF cuts 2022 French nuclear estimate, delays four reactor returns into 2023

EDF has delayed the return dates of four nuclear reactors under repair for stress corrosion into 2023 and cut its estimate for 2022 French nuclear output, it said late Nov. 3.

Strikes in October delayed maintenance at nine reactors into November and EDF has pushed back return dates for four reactors by two to three months, with Chooz 1 and Penly 2 now set to come back online at the end of January and at Cattenom 1 and 3 at the end of February.

The combined impact from the four reactors under repair for stress corrosion issues amounts to over 10 TWh.

Nuclear safety regulator ASN ruled against a request by EDF to return Cattenom 1 before repairing the welds where micro cracks (4.7-6.1 mm) were detected within the safety injection system, it said Nov. 3 before EDF's announcement.

Slight delays for another three reactors set to return this November had less of an impact, with 12 reactors still scheduled to return in November, boosting available capacity above 40 GW for the start of December.

Output on Nov. 4 peaked around 29 GW compared to 42 GW on the same day in 2021 before stress corrosion issues were detected, system data showed.

Winter power rebounds

The lower end of EDF's new 275-285 TWh output range for 2022 is down 5 TWh from the previous 280-300 TWh range.

EDF on Oct. 27 indicated output towards the lower end of the previous range.

The generator's 2023 nuclear output estimate remains in the range of 300-330 TWh, while for 2024 it estimates 315-345 TWh.

Output in the first 10 months of this year stood at at 229 TWh, down 70 TWh compared with the same period of 2021.

S&P Global Commodity Insights projected 2022 output at around 285 TWh in an Oct. 27 forecast, before the latest delays.

French power for December opened Nov. 4 some 15% higher, trading at Eur930/MWh on EEX, but ended the session lower day on day at Eur780/MWh.

Prices had been easing over recent weeks, with December falling from Eur1,231/MWh Oct. 3 to Eur721/MWh Nov. 1.

November contracts more than halved in October to a Eur341.81/MWh settle Oct. 31, with current spot prices well below that level amid mild and windy weather and lower gas prices.

FRENCH REACTOR WATCHLIST

Source: Compiled by S&P Global Commodity Insights from EDF Transparency data (Nov. 4*)