Automakers reconsidering EV strategies amid weaker sales, additional headwinds: Morningstar

Several car manufacturers are rethinking their commitments to electric vehicle technology as sales in recent quarters have slowed or failed to meet expectations leading some automakers to abandon plans to build certain models while others have lowered annual EV production ranges, Morningstar said Oct. 21.

If this trend were to continue, it could reduce some of the US power demand expected from EV adoption.

Volkswagen reported mediocre first half 2024 financial results with the manufacturer indicating it cannot rule out potential plant closures in Germany, analysts at Morningstar DBRS, a global credit ratings business, said in a research note titled “Are Electric Vehicles Short-Circuiting? Auto Manufacturers Revise Electrification Strategies After Slowing Demand.”

However, the analysts also said that in accordance with with “tightening environmental legislation across most jurisdictions worldwide, EVs remain poised to eventually represent much of the global automotive fleet, with automotive original equipment manufacturers highly relying on EVs to attain their future environmental targets.”

In addition to the Volkswagen example, Ford Motor Company recently said it would cancel its planned three-row all electric sport-utility vehicles along with other strategic electrification updates. And General Motors has lowered its planned 2024 EV production to range from 200,000 units to 250,000 units, down from an initially planned range of 250,000 units to 300,000 units, according to the report.

GM also said it will delay the expected launch of the first EV model for its Buick brand.

Market challenges

One of the challenges the automotive industry faces is that after an early wave of EV adoption from buyers drawn to the new technology, higher prices for EVs than traditional internal combustion engine models have prevented buyers from purchasing EVs, the analysts said.

“With EV sales to early adopters now seemingly exhausted, EVs are struggling to maintain ongoing sales momentum among mainstream consumers,” the report said.

EV purchases also remain closely tied to the availability of subsidies, according to the analysis, which noted that “it is not surprising to observe that, across many markets, the slowing demand for EVs has followed a decline in applicable subsidies and incentives in these regions.”

Despite some recent price reductions by automakers, on average an EV is $10,000 to $15,000 more expensive than a comparable conventional ICE vehicle, although this is less of an issue in China, where over 60% of EVs are priced below conventional vehicles, according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2024.

Many US states continue rolling out subsidies to help decrease the price discrepancy between EVs and ICE vehicles. For example, New Jersey recently offered incentives of up to $4,000 for the purchase or lease of a new battery EV and up to $250 for buying an eligible EV charger.

Range anxiety also remains an issue, according to Morningstar, particularly at lower temperatures when batteries can be less efficient.

EV ranges remain “significantly affected” by extreme weather conditions, with temperatures below 40 degrees Fahrenheit potentially decreasing battery range by about 25%, the analysts said citing data from Consumer Reports.

Additional headwinds for EVs include the need for more charging infrastructure, longer charging times than ICE refueling and one-off repairs to components like battery packs being “inordinately expensive,” which can raise EV insurance premiums, the Morningstar analysts said.

The IEA has also expressed concern at the future availability of critical minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, copper and graphite, required to support the expansion of clean energy technologies, in its latest long-term energy outlook.

Battery metal prices have been declining, however. Platts assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate at $10,200/mt CIF North Asia Oct. 16, down 32% since the start of the year. Lithium hydroxide was assessed at $9,800/mt CIF North Asia Oct. 16, down 35% since the beginning of 2024, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.