IAEA revises global nuclear power projections upward for third year

Installed nuclear power capacity estimates for 2050 have been increased for the third consecutive year, driven by growing security of supply concerns as well as lifetime extension for nuclear units and enthusiasm for new advanced and small modular reactors, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in its annual outlook for nuclear power, published Oct. 9.

In a "high case projection," the IAEA said installed global nuclear power generating capacity would more than double to 890 GW by 2050, compared with 369 GW today. Even in a "low case projection," capacity would increase to 458 GW, the IAEA said.

IAEA predictions for nuclear energy have increased every year since 2020, following a decade of predicted stagnation or decline after the 2011 Fukushima I accident in Japan, the report report noted. It did not include any specific numbers from the pre-2020 projections.

In the new outlook, estimates for 2050 are 24% higher in the high case than in the 2020 report. The low case includes a forecast 26% increase on 2020 estimates.

In the high case, it is assumed that only about 7% of the 2022 nuclear generating capacity is retired by 2030, resulting in net capacity additions of about 90 GW by 2030 and 430 GW by 2050. In the low case, 11% of existing reactors would be retired by 2030, and capacity additions would exceed retirements by 55 GW.

"Many countries are extending the lifetime of their existing reactors, considering or launching construction of advanced reactor designs and looking into small modular reactors," IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Gross said in the report. "Climate change is a big driver, but so is security of energy supply," he added. The report did not name any specific countries or regions in its projections.

The report added that there are "a number of necessary conditions for a substantial increase in installed nuclear capacity," including "international efforts toward regulator and industrial harmonization, as well as progress with final disposal of high level radioactive waste."

The report's 2023-50 predictions are based on the status of nuclear power in IAEA Member States at the end of 2022. Overall, global final energy consumption is assumed to increase by about 30% and electricity production to double by 2050.