US BATTERY STORAGE: 97% of US capacity additions in Q2 in ERCOT, WECC, CAISO

Total US battery storage capacity climbed 87.3% year over year to reach a total of 23.775 GW by the end of second quarter 2024, with 5 GW expected to be added in Q3.

There was expected to be 6.9 GW added in Q2. However, only 3.976 GW actually came online by the end of Q2, an increase of 20% from Q1, according to an S&P Global Commodity Insights compilation of various government filings. The data includes facilities that either began commercial operation or were synchronized to the grid.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the West are expected to continue making up the majority of US battery storage capacity, according to Commodity Insight's North American Electricity Long-Term Forecast Supplement.

The Western Electricity Coordinating Council, which includes the California Independent System Operator, is projected to climb to 15.838 GW of battery storage capacity by the end of 2024 and surpass 20 GW in 2025, according to the North American Electricity Long-Term Forecast Supplement. ERCOT follows and is expected to reach nearly 7.2 GW in 2024 and surpass 10 GW in 2025.

Outside of ERCOT and the West, ISO New England is the first region slated to surpass 1 GW in 2025, while New York ISO and the Midcontinent ISO are expected to reach that milestone in 2026, followed by the PJM Interconnection and the SERC Reliability Corporation in 2027. The Southwest Power Pool and Florida Reliability Coordinating Council are not expected to reach 1 GW of capacity until 2029. The SERC Reliability Corporation is formerly known as the Southeast Electric Reliability Council.

The expected annual capacity growth has shifted among regions from the previous North American Electricity Long-Term Forecast Supplement released in January, with increased capacity expected to come online in ERCOT, WECC and ISO New England, while the forecast for other regions became more bearish.

"The change in battery additions in ISO New England was largely driven by a need for capacity," said Annie Gutierrez, Commodity Insights senior research analyst.

Commodity Insights' solar forecast deceased significantly from the second half of 2023 to the first half of 2024 as building renewables has become more difficult due to permitting issues and labor costs, Gutierrez said, adding it's difficult to build new firm capacity that isn't battery storage at this juncture.

"The [ISO New England] battery forecast was increased partially to offset the capacity losses from solar and wind," she said. "In regions like ERCOT, data centers are driving increased demand compared to our last outlook which is increasing the need for firm capacity."

Lithium prices fall

Lithium prices have continued to decline throughout 2024 but have shown less volatility than in the two years prior.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed lithium carbonate CIF North Asia at $12,000/mt Aug. 13. The assessment is down $3,000/mt from the start of 2024 but follows two years of volatility that eventually saw the price collapse from a record of over $78,000/mt in November 2022 to $15,000/mt at the end of 2023.

Most recently, seaborne lithium prices have been rangebound amid high lithium inventory and muted spot demand.

Q3 expectations

If all 5.084 GW of scheduled Q3 additions are completed and added to the grid, it would bring the US total to nearly 28.9 GW, which would be an increase of 21% quarter on quarter, according to the data compiled.

Planned Q3 additions remain focused in the West and Texas, with less than 325 MW expected to come online in the Southeast, Midwest and Northeast. CAISO is expected to see 38.2% of Q3 additions, followed by ERCOT with 34.4% and WECC with 21.2%.

The top five largest projects proposed to be completed in Q3 are:

• Enel Green Power North America's 305.5-MW GulfStar Power in Texas
• Jupiter Power's 302.9-MW Old Aqueduct in Texas
• Clenera's 300-MW Atrisco Energy Storage in New Mexico
• UBS Asset Management's 209.3-MW Citadel BESS in Texas
• ENGIE North America's 200.8-MW BRP Paleo BESS

BRP Paleo BESS was slated to come online in Q2, but has been pushed back to Q3. If GulfStar Power stays on schedule and comes online in Q3, it will become the sixth largest battery storage facility in operation in the US. Enel Green Power North America did not respond to a request for comment.

Q2 battery additions

ERCOT once again had the most additions in Q2 with 1.4 GW, bringing its total capacity to 7.74 GW, or 32.6% of total US capacity, according to the data. However, CAISO continues to lead the nation in battery storage capacity with 9.867 GW, or 41.5% of total US capacity, after adding 1.388 GW in Q2.

While ERCOT added the most battery storage capacity in Q2, the West saw the largest facilities to come online. The top five largest projects added in Q2 were:

• Orsted North America's 300-MW Eleven Mile Solar Center in Arizona
• Plus Power's 250-MW Sierra Estrella Energy Storage in Arizona
• Calpine Affiliates'230-MW Nova Power Phase 1 in California
• Calpine Affiliates' 230-MW Nova Power Phase 2 in California
• Longroad Energy Holdings' 215-MW Sun Streams PVS in Arizona

Eleven Mile Solar Center was initially slated to come online in Q1, but was pushed to Q2. It is now the sixth largest battery storage facility in operation in the US. Orsted North America did not respond to a request for comment.

The top five largest projects added in Q2 now rank in the top 25 largest battery storage facilities in operation in the US, according to the data. Sierra Estrella Energy Storage ranks 12th, the two Nova Power facilities rank 14th and 15th, and Sun Streams ranks 20th.

The largest facility continues to be Florida Power and Light's 409-MW Manatee Energy Storage Center, which started operations in Q4 2021.

Company and state rankings

NextEra Energy Resources remains the company with the most operating battery storage capacity in the US at 3.369 GW, adding 275 MW in Q2, according to the data.

With 452 MW added in Q2, ENGIE North America now ranks second with 1.561 GW, bumping Axium Infrastructure to third with 1.125 GW and no recent additions. Vistra Energy has 1.023 GW of battery storage in operation, but didn't add any capacity in Q2 and was knocked down to fifth place by Plus Power which added 340 MW to total 1.059 MW.

At the state level, California leads US battery storage capacity with about 10.3 GW, followed by Texas with 7.74 GW, Arizona with 1.893 MW, Nevada with 1.125 GW and Florida with nearly 545 MW, according to the data. Five states have between 100 and 500 MW, nine states have between 50 MW and 100 MW, while 20 states have less than 50 MW, leaving 11 states with no battery storage capacity.