EDF confirms 2023 nuclear forecast range, sees gradual increase

EDF has restated its 2023 forecast range for French nuclear output and sees a progressive increase over the next two years, the operator said.

For the current year, output is seen between 300 TWh and 330 TWh, unchanged since early 2022, according to a transparency note published late July 21 with a review of future maintenance outages.

Reactor availability has improved sharply this summer with July 24 output over 10 GW higher year on year.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast French nuclear to average 30 GW in July and August which would put the utility on track for 309 TWh for the full year.

However, actual output has surprised on the upside over recent weeks despite so-called flexing, or price driven ramp downs, during low demand periods such as weekends.

July to-date output is averaging around 32 GW, according to data by grid operator RTE.

EDF also confirmed the forecast range for 2024 at 315-345 TWh.

For 2025, it expects a further increase to 335-365 TWh, it said.

Analysts at S&P Global forecast output towards the upper end of the forecast range.

Last year, output plunged to 279 TWh, the lowest since the 1980s.

EDF is to report Q2 figures on July 27.