Feature: Facing climate goals, more demand, Canada looks to nuclear plants large and small

Canada's most populous province, projected to face burgeoning energy needs while aiming for net zero carbon emissions by mid-century, is looking at a potential major expansion in nuclear power — and the company that oversees the technology driving all the country's existing power reactors says its can best meet much of the future demand.

There is, however, concern that spending billions on new nuclear reactors could be costly.

Ontario's provincial government said in a statement July 5 that it is working with Bruce Power to start pre-development work to determine the feasibility of adding almost 5 GW of new nuclear generation at the Bruce nuclear station. The government said the pre-development work is in preparation for rising electricity demand, electrification and to fuel Ontario's economic growth and that the new reactors would make up a new plant within the 2,300-acre station.

Two days later the government said it is working with Ontario Power Generation to begin planning and licensing for three more GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy BWRX-300 small modular reactors at OPG's Darlington station, after OPG announced in January that a contract had been signed to build the first SMR there.

The government followed with its own report, titled "Powering Ontario's Growth," which was released July 10 and said the province "is attracting unprecedented investments in electric vehicles (EV), battery manufacturing, clean steelmaking and other sectors, creating new jobs and driving demand for new electricity generation and storage."

The government report also made repeated references to a December 2022 report by Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator titled "Pathways to Decarbonization" in which the government had asked the IESO to evaluate a moratorium on new natural gas generation in the province and to develop a path to zero-emissions in the electricity sector. The report said a moratorium would be feasible beginning in 2027 but Ontario could need to more than double its electricity generation capacity from the current 42,000 MW to 88,000 MW in 2050.

The report also said that large infrastructure projects such as nuclear facilities, hydroelectric, and transmission lines can take 10 to 15 years to build, and preliminary work should begin now in order that options are available in the 2030s and beyond.

Of Canada's 40 million people, about 15.5 million live in Ontario and nuclear power accounts for about half of the province's electricity supply. The Canadian nuclear fleet currently consists of 19 Candu units — 18 in Ontario and one in New Brunswick. SNC-Lavalin Executive Vice-President, Canada, Nuclear Gary Rose said in a July 14 email that the company has "always stated that we are ready to build Next-Generation CANDU reactors" and is "of the view that new large Nuclear in Canada should be CANDU technology."

"SNC-Lavalin believes that CANDU technology is the clear choice for new large nuclear reactor builds in Canada," Rose said. "We have the infrastructure, supply chain and human capacity to deploy CANDU technology, maximizing the economic value to Canada and providing ongoing energy security."

Candu reactors are a heavy-water pressurized reactor design that can operate with natural uranium, meaning enrichment services are not required. This makes Canada, unlike many countries, independent in nuclear fuel sourcing.

"While the physics of our natural-uranium CANDU technology remain constant, we constantly look at our technology, with the goal of how to innovate to stay ahead of the market, increase cost-effectiveness, increase capacity factors and adapt it to meet customer and market demands," Rose also said.

Rose said that for Canada to meet a three-fold increase in power demand by 2050 under a net-zero grid it must build 45 SMRs and 20 Candu reactors.

The provincial government said Ontario has one of the cleanest electricity systems in North America, accounting for approximately 3% of all provincial emissions. The government also said an Impact Assessment for the potential new nuclear plant at the Bruce station is not specific to any reactor technology, including Candu, so the size and number of reactors to be built would be part of future licensing applications with the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission.

Bruce Power 'technology agnostic'

Meanwhile, Bruce Power said it does not have a preference on the technology that potentially could be used in an expansion at the Bruce station, which has eight Candu units that total near 6.7 GW of generation and is the largest operating nuclear generating station in North America. It produces approximately 30% of Ontario's electricity.

"We are technology agnostic at this point and, as part of the early planning work, we will review the various technology options to determine the feasibility of siting...new nuclear generation on our current site," Bruce Power spokesperson John Peevers said July 12. "The 4,800 MW envelope allows us to evaluate and consider multiple reactor technologies in the Impact Assessment process while still enabling regulatory agencies to perform the required assessments."

But Jack Gibbons, chairman of Ontario Clean Air Alliance, said in an interview July 18 that government plans to spend billions on new reactors "is simply economically irrational" and that wind and solar power would be one-third the cost of new nuclear.

"Great Lakes wind power could meet more than 100% of Ontario's [current] electricity needs," said Gibbons, who added that by harnessing that source all of the province's electricity needs to 2050 can be met by the combination of wind, solar and hydroelectric power.

Undue nuclear industry influence?

Portions of Ontario border four of the great lakes — Erie, Huron, Ontario and Superior — but Gibbons said the provincial government currently has a moratorium on Great Lakes wind power. Gibbons also said there is a "very powerful nuclear industry lobby in Ontario" that exercises undue influence on the government.

Dave Butters, president of the Association of Power Producers of Ontario, of which Bruce Power and OPG are members, said in an interview July 11 that Canada's goals of being net zero in electricity by 2035 and net-zero carbon in the economy by 2050 "is a very heavy lift" and that "it's impossible to see a future where nuclear isn't the largest source of energy" in the province.

Butters said nuclear power "is the only baseload that we can build up," that the province cannot rely on wind and solar or, with regards to hydroelectric power, neighboring Quebec.