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Electric Power, Nuclear
April 23, 2025
HIGHLIGHTS
French Cal 2026 below Eur60/MWh, lowest since 2021
Oversupply deflates French summer peakload prices
Focus on post-ARENH mechanism for French nuclear
The outgoing CEO of nuclear operator EDF told a French parliamentary committee that French electricity prices are Europe's most competitive today and will soon be as competitive as in the US.
"Electricity, I guarantee that it is the most competitive in Europe today and that compared to the United States (...) today, with the exception of two or three states, but tomorrow in all American states, our electricity will be more competitive," Luc Remont said before a French Senate commission on April 22, according to Public Senat on April 23.
Questioned by the Senate committee inquiry on state aid to businesses, the CEO of the state-owned power generator who will not see his mandate renewed next month, said EDF Group was "not going to subsidize industrial companies," some of which still depend on 90% on gas for their energy.
European gas prices are well above US gas prices, but some French wholesale power prices are now comparable to summer peak load power contracts across the US, according to Platts pricing and exchange data.
French Cal 2026 baseload power settled April 21 at Eur59.64/MWh ($68/MWh), the lowest for a French year-ahead contract since April 2021, EEX exchange data showed with the EDF CEO speaking about Eur60/MWh.
Across Europe's five main power markets, France is the cheapest, while Italy is highest at Eur99.20/MWh for Cal 2026. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, last assessed UK year-ahead power at Eur86.41/MWh on April 22.
Power prices in the US have strong regional and seasonal drivers making direct comparisons difficult.
Current day-ahead on-peak prices across major US hubs range from $8.25/MWh (CAISO SP15) to nearly $52/MWh (PJM Western Hub) for April 23, according to pricing data from Platts and grid operators.
However, peakload prices this summer in the ERCOT hubs in Texas could hit $150/MWh, according to Platts M2MS forward curves as of April 22. That compares to summer peaks around $80/MWh for the PJM/MISO hubs in the Northeast of the US and levels around $100/MWh in the Western power markets including CASIO.
French power prices for this summer are lower as the country faces oversupply from nuclear and renewables and export constraints due to a stretched grid.
May peakload power only rebounded slightly from lows just above Eur20/MWh in early April, which were on par with record lows seen during the coronavirus lockdowns in the spring of 2020.
French power prices are highest during winter cold snaps due to heavy reliance on electricity for heating, while US power prices are more driven by cooling demand during summer.
Average annual US on-peak day-ahead power prices eased from $84.84/MWh in 2022 to $39.92/MWh in 2024, but are already on the rise again averaging $52.24/MWh so far this year ahead of the summer season, according to pricing data by Platts and regional grid operators.
Regarding France's plan to build six new EPR2 reactors with a combined 10 GW capacity, the outgoing EDF CEO also said negotiations with the government "had seen convergence" on the fact that power generated from the future EPR2s must cost less than Eur100/MWh.
Remont said construction costs are estimated to be "in the order of around Eur100 billion," significantly higher than most previous estimates.
However, the first new reactors will not be ready before 2038, with the market focus on a new system for output from France's fleet of existing reactors, with the current ARENH mechanism due to expire.
Disagreement over the strategy for future nuclear power sales was a key factor in the decision not to extend Remont's contract, French nuclear power industry observers said.
Under the ARENH framework in place since 2010, EDF is forced to sell 100 TWh/year at Eur42/MWh to domestic suppliers.
In its place, a new formula was announced in November 2023, under which EDF would offer long-term power purchase agreements of up to 15 years with a reference price of Eur70/MWh and the government clawing back excess earnings if market prices rise above Eur78/MWh.
EDF's annual meeting in May needs to confirm the next EDF CEO after the government nominated Bernard Fontana, the current head of the nuclear engineering company Framatome.
A final investment decision on the EPR2 program is expected to be made during the second half of 2026, Remont said in February.
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