Global data center power demand to double by 2030 on AI surge: IEA

Global electricity demand from data centers is set to more than double to 945 TWh by 2030, equivalent to Japan's current total power consumption, as artificial intelligence drives unprecedented growth in the sector's energy needs, the International Energy Agency said April 10.

The surge in AI-driven power demand could reshape electricity markets in advanced economies, with data centers projected to account for over 20% of total demand growth through 2030, according to the IEA's special report "Energy and AI."

"AI is one of the biggest stories in the energy world today – but until now, policy makers and markets lacked the tools to fully understand the wide-ranging impacts," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

In the US, data centers are expected to consume more electricity for processing data than all energy-intensive manufacturing combined by 2030, including aluminum, steel, cement and chemicals production.

Data centers will drive almost half of US electricity demand growth over the period, the report found.

For 2024, the report estimates electricity consumption from data centers at around 415 TWh or about 1.5% of global power consumption. Sector demand has grown at an annual rate of 12% over the last five years, it said.

Total global data center capacity has almost reached 100 GW.

Overall, global electricity consumption growth accelerated to 4.3% in 2024, up from 2.5% in 2023, the IEA said last month.

Supply challenges

While renewables and natural gas are positioned to meet most of the rising power demand due to their cost-competitiveness in key markets, the AI boom presents both challenges and opportunities for the energy sector.

The report highlights growing cybersecurity risks, with AI-enabled attacks on utilities tripling over the past four years. However, AI technology is also becoming crucial for defending against such threats.

Critical mineral supply chains face increased pressure from data center equipment demand, the IEA said, providing first-time estimates of the sector's mineral requirements.

The report emphasized uncertainties around AI adoption rates, efficiency improvements, and potential grid bottlenecks that could affect projected demand growth.

Despite driving higher electricity consumption, AI's overall emissions impact could potentially be offset if the technology enables broader emissions reductions across sectors, according to the report.

The over 300-page long report deep dives into various aspects and explores scenarios of AI rollouts, regional examples as well as technology uncertainties and case studies like DeepSeek.

In a report in January 2024, the IEA projected US data center power demand to reach 260 TWh in 2026, with European data center demand in 2026 pegged around 150 TWh, while Chinese data center demand was seen sitting in the middle.

Meanwhile, a report by London-based think-tank Energy Intelligence estimates global electricity demand from data centers to reach 1,000 TWh by 2026, up from an estimated 460 TWh in 2022.

However in the medium to long term, Energy Intelligence expects demand increases to be at least partially offset by significant efficiency gains as processors improve, new cooling solutions are integrated, and training algorithms are optimized.

Leading GPU manufacturers have told Energy Intelligence that these efficiencies will likely scale at least as quickly as AI itself, it said in the report dated April 8.