Europe forecast to add 262 GW new wind capacity by 2030: WindEurope

Europe is forecast to add some 262 GW of wind power capacity by 2030, almost doubling its installed capacity over the next seven years, sector association WindEurope said Feb. 28 in its annual outlook.

Faster permitting and a rebound in wind investments is bringing 2030 sector targets within reach as "Europe is turning the corner on wind energy," it said with two thirds of new capacity expected onshore.

"Things are looking up again for wind in Europe," said WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson, noting improved permitting thanks to new EU rules with "record volumes auctioned and built."

In 2023, Europe added 18.3 GW new wind capacity, lifting total installed capacity to 272 GW, WindEurope said.

Some 21 GW is forecast to be added this year, rising to around 28 GW next year before 2026 additions, which are forecast to exceed 30 GW.

Compared to the previous outlook for 2023-2027, WindEurope sees a combined 4 GW more for 2025 to 2027, but 2 GW less for 2023 and 2024.

Last year, wind covered 20% of power demand in the EU27 and the UK in 2023 with a record 545 TWh generated.

WindEurope sees the sector on track to reach the EU target of covering 35% of EU power demand in 2030, it said.

Grid bottlenecks

On average, EU nations are to add 29 GW of wind each year until 2030, with the share of offshore set to increase sharply towards the end of the decade.

The association forecasts 393 GW installed wind capacity in the EU27 by 2030.

That compares to a 425 GW target set by the EU, it said.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast 380 GW installed wind capacity in the EU27 by end-2030.

While additions are set to dip, next year could see record growth, both WindEurope and S&P Global analysts forecast.

Key drivers are new EU rules on permitting that have already boosted permitting volumes for new wind farms, WindEurope said with permits in Germany and Spain seen up sharply.

Meanwhile, grid permitting and grid access were becoming the biggest bottleneck for deploying wind energy at scale, it added.

Germany will continue to be Europe's largest wind market, with 44 GW of new onshore and 20 GW offshore capacity forecast to be added by 2030, according to WindEurope.

Outside the EU27, the UK is Europe's biggest wind market with some 29 GW to be added offshore as well as 12 GW new onshore capacity, it said.

Capture prices for German onshore wind in 2023 fell 54% year on year to Eur78.57/MWh, according to Platts assessments from S&P Global.