German solar capacity hits 100 GW milestone despite slower roof-top growth

Germany's installed solar capacity has reached the 100 GW milestone, solar association BSW said Jan. 6 based on its calculation of system data by regulator BNetzA.

Main growth drivers in 2024 were ground-mounted solar parks with annual additions up 40% at 6.3 GW, while residential roof-top additions fell 15% year over year to 6.7 GW, it said.

Commercial roof-top capacity additions increased around 25% to 3.6 GW. In total, a record 17 GW new solar PV capacity was installed in 2024, according to BSW.

BSW managing director Carsten Koernig expects annual growth of a similar magnitude over the next two years.

"However, reaching the next milestones of the energy transition is not a sure-fire success," the BSW head warned in light of Germany's 2030 target of 215 GW installed solar capacity.

"An attractive and reliable regulatory framework is a prerequisite for a corresponding willingness to invest. This requires further political efforts," he said in a statement calling upon the next government to "remove market barriers and ensure an attractive investment framework."

Solar power covered a record 14% of domestic demand in 2024, up from 12% in 2023, BSW said.

The association also noted some challenging market conditions for installers in the residential segment.

That segment (below 30 kW) has now 38 GW installed. Ground-mounted solar accounts for around 32 GW with some 29 GW installed on commercial roof-tops (above 30 kW), it said.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast German solar capacity to reach 130 GW by end-2026.

Platts, part of Commodity Insights, last assessed utility-scale PV modules (5-50 MW, DDP Europe) at $0.105/W (Eur102,000/MW).

Utility association BDEW recently warned about a "PV peak problem" calling upon lawmakers to implement the EnWG reform regulations to mitigate this problem, which "poses a significant risk to grid stability, especially on sunny days when solar production may exceed consumption."

Platts assessed German solar capture prices averaging below Eur50/MWh during summer 2024 (April to September) as solar peaks deflated midday hours, according to data by Commodity Insights.