ADNOC forecasts 1.744 mil b/d Murban crude exports for Dec 2025

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has forecast its flagship Murban crude export volumes at 1.744 million b/d for December 2025, a slight decrease from 1.749 million b/d set for November 2025, it said in a report Dec. 27.

Notably, Murban crude exports forecast for March 2025 have been cut by 70,000 b/d from the November report to 1.657 million b/d. This was down from 1.716 million b/d forecast for February 2025.

The other months saw no changes in projected export volumes from the November report.

ADNOC earlier in December had informed equity holders of output cuts over January-March, with February seeing the largest cut of 229,000 b/d, likely due to a delay in the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts announced at the group's Dec. 5 meeting, S&P Global Commodity Insights reported earlier.

Produced from 2,000 onshore wells, Murban is ADNOC's top crude by volume, accounting for more than 2 million b/d of its total production capacity of around 4 million b/d.

ADNOC sets the official selling price for Murban crude using the monthly average of the Singapore marker for Murban futures on the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi Exchange that go to delivery two months in advance.

The OSPs for ADNOC's Upper Zakum, Das and Umm Lulu grades are priced at a differential to the Murban OSP.

Earlier in December, the company set the outright January 2025 OSP for its flagship crude grade at $72.81/b, down $2.06/b month over month.

Murban is the second physically delivered futures contract to trade on a regional exchange, following the Gulf Mercantile Exchange's Oman crude futures.

Murban is a deliverable grade in the Platts Dubai and Oman crude assessments from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

As of Dec. 26, the front-month cash Murban's premium over cash Dubai has averaged 14 cents/b month to date, down from an average of 18 cents/b in November, data from Commodity Insights showed.