Iran's crude exports to Syria halt after rebels seize power

Iran's oil supply line to Syria appears to have been severed following the sudden fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, according to tanker tracking data, in a blow to both the war-torn country's energy supplies and Tehran's outlets for its sanctioned oil.

The Ramona I tanker was seen in the Mediterranean Sea returning empty on Dec. 2 after delivering 1 million barrels of Iran's crude to Syria's Mediterranean coast, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. The vessel -- part of Iran's 'dark' fleet, which regularly delivers crude to Syria -- loaded its cargo on Nov. 2 and may have been the last to ship oil to the country. Another Suezmax tanker, the Lotus, was seen turning back in the Gulf of Suez on Dec. 7, laden with crude, as rebel forces captured Damascus, the data shows.

The Ramona I and the Lotus form part of a list of oil tankers that the US Energy Information Administration in October listed as being involved in the export and sale of Iranian crude oil.

Iran, a major backer of the Assad regime, had been shipping one to two Suexmax tankers per month to Syria's Banias refinery in recent years. The export shipments have averaged around 50,000 b/d to Banias in 2024, down from a high of about 80,000 b/d in 2023, CAS data shows.

Oil smuggling

Since the 2011 civil war, Syria's Assad regime has become increasingly reliant on oil imports from Iran to satisfy its domestic consumption needs, which have shrunk from 305,000 b/d in 2010 to 163,000 b/d in 2024 as the country's war-torn economy struggles. Once producing nearly 400,000 b/d before the civil war, Syria's domestic oil production has also dramatically collapsed to around 20,000 b/d.

The current operational status of Syria's refineries and how long they can continue to operate without imported crude remains unclear.

Syria has two refineries at Banias (120,000 b/d) and Homs, with a capacity of 107,100 b/d, but damage and falling demand since the war means they are operating well below their nameplate capacity. Oil analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights estimate that two plants are processing around 70,000 b/d, covering less than half of Syria's product needs.

The disruption highlights the complex energy dynamics in the region. Beyond direct Iranian crude exports, Iranian-aligned militias have reportedly been supplementing Syria's oil supply by smuggling crude from western Iraq. The Banias refinery has also relied on crude trucked from Kurdish-controlled oil fields in Hasaka and Deir al Zor provinces, according to local reports.

Prior to the regime's collapse, Iran and Syria had ambitious energy cooperation plans. In 2017, they signed a $2.6 billion contract to build a new 140,000 b/d refinery near Homs. While feasibility studies were completed in 2022, the project appears to have stalled. Iran had also planned to begin work rehabilitating the Banias refinery after the completion of the Homs refinery, according to Iran media reports in 2023.